Funmurphys: the Blog

My Last Arnold Post

Yeah, I know, promises promises. In case you just awoke from a coma, Arnold was elected governor of California in the recall election. This has caused a lot of hyperventilating and wishful thinking. It seems that a lot of people credit Arnold's celebrity or moderation for the victory. I think that is right in some ways, and wrong in others. The Man Without Qualities linked to a poll in USA today from shortly before the election that tracked the results fairly well. And in that poll is a fact that I haven't seen addressed by any commentator - namely that with Arnold out of the race, Davis would have been recalled and McClintock would have been elected governor by a margin only 2 percent less than Arnold's if McClintock wasn't in the race (56% vs. 58%). So my interpretation of the figures is that people wanted Davis out, didn't want Bustamante (whether he was tainted by Davis or couldn't stand on his own two feet isn't clear), and didn't care too much about the differences between Arnold and McClintock. But I do think Arnold's celebrity and moderation earned him votes over McClintock because voters thought he could win - and it was more important to defeat Davis and Bustamante than to elect a particular candidate. Since this idea doesn't do anybody or parties any good (except, perhaps, McClintock), I guess I'm not surprised you haven't heard it advanced anywhere.