June 23, 2004

Iraq Reprise

Here’s something I wrote way back in November of last year:

The United States will leave Iraq one day; the only question isn't so much when but under what conditions. Our desire is to leave behind a functioning government complete with armed forces that will be able to defeat the insurgents. It would be nice if the insurgents were wiped out before we left, but not necessary. In that sense, US troops are fighting a holding action. The insurgents would like us to leave before that goal is achieved, and then to defeat the government we leave behind. So the insurgents have to do two things to win - demoralize the US, and demoralize a majority of the Iraqi's themselves. Thus they are attacking not just US soldiers, but foreign groups (such as the UN and NGOs) that will help the fledgling Iraqi government, and the Iraqi forces (mostly police) we are constituting for the Iraqi government.

At this point, there are now more Iraqi's under arms fighting with us than there are American troops in Iraq, and the number of Iraqi's under arms grows daily. Soon there will be more Iraqi's under arms for the government than there ever were US soldiers in Iraq. So the attacks against Iraqi police are important to the insurgents to keep that day from coming - not from killing that many police, but from killing enough that too few ordinary Iraqi's become police, or soldiers, or guards. So the insurgents have to attack now before the Iraqi police and military overwhelm them.


I think it still holds up pretty well today. This is why I’m not too worried about all the day to day results. The Iraqis don't have to love us; they just have to be willing to seize their own future and build a nation that is good enough and start the long process of steady improvement. Iraq isn't a disaster now; it was a disaster when Saddam was in charge and it's been getting better ever since he was removed.

And you can't rely on a cursory examination of the press to provide information; they've been wrong and biased on all things Iraq since day three when a sandstorm slowed up our advance. A more balanced view is provided by doing some digging. The press isn't just in the tank, they are the tank.

Posted by Kevin Murphy at June 23, 2004 2:36 PM | War On Terror