April 27, 2006
A Metric For Victory?
Now that's what I call a provocative headline: Al Qaida Admits Defeat:
Many Moslems still support terrorism, just not in their neighborhood. But after watching what happened in Iraq and Saudi Arabia since 2003, Moslems can no longer be assured that, once unleashed, Islamic terrorism will only be carried out somewhere else. Moreover, years of al Qaeda boasting have failed the reality check. No amount of hot air and spin will change the fact that al Qaeda has accomplished none of its goals, and has gotten lots of Moslems killed in the process.
What Strategy Page is talking about is that the Islamic world as a whole no longer supports terrorism as a solution to their problems, even though some individual Moslems do.
As far as admitting defeat, that doesn't mean the fightings over though. And looking at WWII, the casualties went up as the war went on. Both the US and Japan took far more casualties after Midway than before, but at that point the handwriting was on the wall for the Japanese.
April 26, 2006
Gas Prices
We Americans seem to think that it's our right to always have cheap and plentiful gas. You may have noticed, the price is going up. And as always, we don't ask ourselves why, we look for scapegoats and quick fixes. So Econobrowser has a partial answer to why and thus who's to blame. And in this mornings newspaper, there was an excellent letter to the editor about this very subject that gives a pretty good overview:
I began my week by filling my tank with $2.77-per-gallon gas. The radio was tuned to a station that was commenting on the price of gas and quoting prominent Democratic senators who blame President George W. Bush and Republicans for the lack of a national energy policy. I thought perhaps they are right; maybe we don't have a cogent energy policy.When I read the Post-Dispatch, I saw a picture of a crowd of Woodstock-wannabes celebrating Earth Day. It occurred to me that we do have an energy policy -- a policy influenced by the likes of the "dancers" in the picture.
Since the first Earth Day, with the help of the media, politically driven educational unions, unelected judges and self-serving elected officials, a de facto energy policy has evolved. That policy forbids drilling for oil and natural gas in places where huge amounts are known to exist, erects countless legal barriers to the building of new gasoline refineries and safe, pollution-free nuclear power plants and limits the use of coal, our most abundant resource, for the generation of electricity.
Before complaining about the high price of gasoline, natural gas and electricity, remember how our energy policy was established and by whom.
Tom Mueller | St. Charles
I think together they tell us why - we've decided there are other things about energy more important than it's price. Gas was getting cheaper, so why not worry more about things other than the price. And guess what, we've raised the price by acting on those values. Now that isn't the complete story, because its the increase in world wide demand coupled with the relative decrease in supply that drives the price up.
Would we be happier if the asian economies weren't booming but the price of gas were cheaper?
It's Official: Tony Snow
I didn't really expect Don Rumsfeld to be named White House press secretary, so I'm not disappointed that it was the loudly rumored Tony Snow who will be press secretary. Tony is bucking the trend - usually you work for a politician, then you go to work for the press (Stephanopolis, Mathews, Russert, and Scarborough (OK, he was a politician) come quickly to mind). Of course, Tony has already worked for a politician, and I can think of no more thankless job than working as a press secretary for a President's last three years whom the press hate. It's like being put in a cage with starving ferets for three years, and you're the only food in the cage with them. Will the press go easy on him because 1. he was a colleague and 2. he's got cancer? My money is on NOT in a big way because he worked for FOX and his illness is nothing next to the fact he's working for BUSH! Nope, it will 3 years of daily "Get him, kill the heretic!" for Tony.
April 25, 2006
More Mary McCarthy
Okay, first up, Mary McCarthy's lawyer says his client did not disclose classified information. Something to keep in mind is that as far as I can tell, the only official word from the CIA was in an announcement that reportedly said somebody was fired because they had provided classified information to a reporter; I haven't been able to find it on the web, not even at the CIA web site. So far, we have mostly anonymous sources at the CIA providing a variety of info. So if Ms. McCarthy is not accused, let alone not guilty, then my apologies.
Second up, when the NYTs was reporting on the Swiftboat Vets, they put together this very handy chart with all the political donations, and connections, however tenous, to the Bushes or any high profile Texas politician. I'm wondering, where is the chart for Ms. McCarthy? Heck they can't even get the amount of her contributions correct. Tom Maguire is so good at finding inconsistancies in news accounts, perhaps he should make up charts like the NYT did on the Swiftboat vets comparing what they said now to what they said then. Heck, why doesn't the NYTs do that more often with politicians, or retired generals?
Mr Maguire also points me to one Larry Johnson, and his analys of how she came to posses the classified info she alleged leaked:
She could find out about secret prisons if Intelligence Officers involved with that program had filed a complaint with the IG or if there was some incident that compelled senior CIA officials to determine an investigation was warranted. In other words, this program did not come to Mary's attention (if the allegations are true) because she worked on it as an ops officer. Instead, it appears an investigation of the practice had been proposed or was underway. That's another story reporters probably ought to be tracking down.
How about this possibility Mr. Johnson -- the program was the subject of a complaint or complaints, but when it was cleared by an investigation, Mrs. McCarthy was not satisfied with that result and so leaked its existance to a friendly press? And she wasn't motivated by patriotism, but partisanship? Isn't that more probable version when you consider that the leak was timed to overshadow Secretary of State Rice's trip to Europe following the election of Andrea Merkel and that she had handled a similar internal disagreement differently? I have to admit that perhaps she handled it differently only because writing a letter didn't achieve anything with her disagreement with President Clinton's administration -- which doesn't excuse here from divulging classified info.
And one last thing to ponder - the CIA did not official release her name. Does this mean that they will be investigating who did, a la Valerie Plame Wilson? Or that whoever did out this CIA agent should get the full Scooter Libby treatment?
I may have to create a CIA scandals category.
UPDATE: It wasn't the New York Times, it was was Mind in the Qatar, yes Virginia, a blog, who has put together the visually catchy chart, AKA the McCarthy Matrix so you don't have to wait around for the NYTs not to put one together.
And while I'm at it, Allahpundit has the best primer on the subject - via FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog.
The 50 Best Books to Movies and Me
Since I'm drawing all my inspiration from Mark at Kaedrin, here is my take on the Guardian's best 50 book to movie adaptations:
1. [BM] 1984
2. [BM] Alice in Wonderland
3. American Psycho
4. [M] Breakfast at Tiffany's
5. Brighton Rock
6. [BM] Catch 22
7. [BM] Charlie & the Chocolate Factory
8. [BM] A Clockwork Orange
9. Close Range (inc Brokeback Mountain)
10. [BM]The Day of the Triffids
11. [M] Devil in a Blue Dress
12. [M] Different Seasons (inc The Shawshank Redemption)
13. [BM] Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? (aka Bladerunner)
14. [BM] Doctor Zhivago
15. [B] Empire of the Sun
16. [M] The English Patient
17. Fight Club
18. [M] The French Lieutenant's Woman
19. [M] Get Shorty
20. [M] The Godfather
21. [BM] Goldfinger
22. [M] Goodfellas
23. [M] Heart of Darkness (aka Apocalypse Now)
24. [BM] The Hound of the Baskervilles
25. [BM] Jaws
26. [M] The Jungle Book
27. A Kestrel for a Knave (aka Kes)
28. [BM] LA Confidential
29. [M] Les Liaisons Dangereuses
30. [M] Lolita
31. [BM] Lord of the Flies
32. [M] The Maltese Falcon
33. [BM] Oliver Twist
34. [BM] One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest
35. Orlando
36. [B] The Outsiders
37. [BM] Pride and Prejudice
38. [M] The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie
39. The Railway Children
40. [M] Rebecca
41. [M] The Remains of the Day
42. [M] Schindler's Ark (aka Schindler's List)
43. Sin City --- does the Dark Knight count?
44. [M] The Spy Who Came in From the Cold
45. [M] The Talented Mr Ripley
46. [BM] Tess of the D'Urbervilles
47. Through a Glass Darkly
48. [BM] To Kill a Mockingbird
49. Trainspotting
50. [M] The Vanishing
51. [BM] Watership Down
Yes, they really did include 51. Please don't ask me why, I'm not a journalist.
Looking at the lists I can find via Mark, nobody has seen or read Brighton Rock or A Kestrel For a Knave. I do think there is a bit of a British bias to these choices as well.
April 24, 2006
Iran Or Belarus?
A case of real hypocrisy: Iran's President Welcome in EU. Belarus's Not.
What if, as a sign of courtesy to the Austrian presidency in the EU, Ahmadinejad visits one Viennese prison cell – that of David Irving, another Holocaust-denier with much less pretentious claims about it? He would probably get away with it too. Could anybody imagine Austrians jailing the president of the nuclear-rich Iran? He is not David Irving with his books of dubious quality. He does not wear pinstriped suits. All he does is call for Israel to be whipped off the map. Or at least be moved to Europe. Not a single reason to bar him from the EU? I wish the EU was as hospitable to all Muslim guests, not just Ahmadinejad.
We don't get to pick and choose our enemies; sometimes they pick us as such. But to pick and choose based on naked self interest -- punishing those who can do nothing for you while rewarding those who can, yet pretend that you are punishing the wicked and rewarding the virtuous is not just hypocritical but wicked itself.
The Other McCarthy (Mary, that is)
Is there a difference between providing classified information to an American journalist or an agent of a foreign power? Yes, if you provide it to the journalist, every enemy of America will get the classified information. That's why I have to agree with Will Collier: throw away the key. Mary McCarthy is a traitor.
Now we just have to find out who divulged the NSA program of wiretapping international calls and punish that traitor too.
And that's part of my disappointment with Patrick Fitzgerald - make the case on Libby for releasing classified information to someone who was not authorized, make the case for Joe Wilson releasing classified information to someone who was not authorized, or go home. Why make a perjury case on Libby while at the same time shielding 1 or 2 (depending on whether or not Novak and Woodward had the same source) people who leaked info before Libby -- to save them from embarrassment -- and do nothing on the underlying offense? Pathetic.
Gateway Pundit has a big roundup on this story.
What Does Information Taste Like?
The way to a man's heart is through his stomach, so it should come as no surprise that the way to anyone's brain is through the tongue. The military is interested in a device known as a Brain Port: a strip of 144 electrodes that can send information through nerves in the tongue to the brain. One user described the sensation to Pop Rocks.
But its not all about the military:
In testing, blind people found doorways, noticed people walking in front of them and caught balls. A version of the device, expected to be commercially marketed soon, has restored balance to those whose vestibular systems in the inner ear were destroyed by antibiotics.
I'm thinking its an even better man/machine interface than the desktop metaphor, keyboard and mouse.
Obvious Appeal
Here's an idea I can get behind: The Jayne Mansfield 44 cent stamp. There's certainly no room to get in front of it.
April 22, 2006
Little Red Riding Hood?
There once was a young person named Little Red Riding
Hood who lived on the edge of a large forest full of
endangered owls and rare plants that would probably
provide a cure for cancer if only someone took the
time to study them.
Red Riding Hood lived with a nurture giver whom she
sometimes referred to as "mother", although she didn't
mean to imply by this term that she would have thought
less of the person if a close biological link did not
in fact exist.
Nor did she intend to denigrate the equal value of
nontraditional households, although she was sorry if
this was the impression conveyed.
One day her mother asked her to take a basket of
organically grown fruit and mineral water to her
grandmother's house.
"But mother, won't this be stealing work from the
unionized people who have struggled for years to earn
the right to carry all packages between various people
in the woods?"
Red Riding Hood's mother assured her that she had
called the union boss and gotten a special
compassionate mission exemption form.
"But mother, aren't you oppressing me by ordering me
to do this?"
Red Riding Hood's mother pointed out that it was
impossible for womyn to oppress each other, since all
womyn were equally oppressed until all womyn were
free.
"But mother, then shouldn't you have my brother carry
the basket, since he's an oppressor, and should learn
what it's like to be oppressed?"
And Red Riding Hood's mother explained that her
brother was attending a special rally for animal
rights, and besides, this wasn't stereotypical womyn's
work, but an empowering deed that would help engender
a feeling of community.
"But won't I be oppressing Grandma, by implying that
she's sick and hence unable to independently further
her own selfhood?"
But Red Riding Hood's mother explained that her
grandmother wasn't actually sick or incapacitated or
mentally handicapped in any way, although that was not
to imply that any of these conditions were inferior to
what some people called "health".
Thus Red Riding Hood felt that she could get behind
the idea of delivering the basket to her grandmother,
and so she set off.
Many people believed that the forest was a foreboding
and dangerous place, but Red Riding Hood knew that
this was an irrational fear based on cultural
paradigms instilled by a patriarchal society that
regarded the natural world as an exploitable resource,
and hence believed that natural predators were in fact
intolerable competitors.
Other people avoided the woods for fear of thieves and
deviants, but Red Riding Hood felt that in a truly
classless society all marginalized peoples would be
able to "come out" of the woods and be accepted as
valid lifestyle role models.
On her way to Grandma's house, Red Riding Hood passed
a woodchopper, and wandered off the path, in order to
examine some flowers.
She was startled to find herself standing before a
Wolf, who asked her what was in her basket.
Red Riding Hood's teacher had warned her never to talk
to strangers, but she was confident in taking control
of her own budding sexuality, and chose to dialogue
with the Wolf.
She replied, "I am taking my Grandmother some
healthful snacks in a gesture of solidarity."
The Wolf said, "You know, my dear, it isn't safe for a
little girl to walk through these woods alone."
Red Riding Hood said, "I find your sexist remark
offensive in the extreme, but I will ignore it because
of your traditional status as an outcast from society,
the stress of which has caused you to develop an
alternative and yet entirely valid worldview. Now, if
you'll excuse me, I would prefer to be on my way."
Red Riding Hood returned to the main path, and
proceeded towards her Grandmother's house.
But because his status outside society had freed him
from slavish adherence to linear, Western-style
thought, the Wolf knew of a quicker route to Grandma's
house.
He burst into the house and ate Grandma, a course of
action affirmative of his nature as a predator.
Then, unhampered by rigid, traditionalist gender role
notions, he put on Grandma's nightclothes, crawled
under the bedclothes, and awaited developments.
Red Riding Hood entered the cottage and said,
"Grandma, I have brought you some cruelty free snacks
to salute you in your role of wise and nurturing
matriarch."
The Wolf said softly "Come closer, child, so that I
might see you."
Red Riding Hood said, "Goddess! Grandma, what big eyes
you have!"
"You forget that I am optically challenged."
"And Grandma, what an enormous, what a fine nose you
have."
"Naturally, I could have had it fixed to help my
acting career, but I didn't give in to such societal
pressures, my child."
"And Grandma, what very big, sharp teeth you have!"
The Wolf could not take any more of these specist
slurs, and, in a reaction appropriate for his
accustomed milieu, he leaped out of bed, grabbed
Little Red Riding Hood, and opened his jaws so wide
that she could see her poor Grandmother cowering in
his belly.
"Aren't you forgetting something?" Red Riding Hood
bravely shouted. "You must request my permission
before proceeding to a new level of intimacy!"
The Wolf was so startled by this statement that he
loosened his grasp on her.
At the same time, the woodchopper burst into the
cottage, brandishing an ax.
"Hands off!" cried the woodchopper.
"And what do you think you're doing?" cried Little Red
Riding Hood. "If I let you help me now, I would be
expressing a lack of confidence in my own abilities,
which would lead to poor self esteem and lower
achievement scores on college entrance exams."
"Last chance, sister! Get your hands off that
endangered species! This is an FBI sting!" screamed
the woodchopper, and when Little Red Riding Hood
nonetheless made a sudden motion, he sliced off her
head.
"Thank goodness you got here in time," said the Wolf.
"The brat and her grandmother lured me in here. I
thought I was a goner."
"No, I think I'm the real victim, here," said the
woodchopper. "I've been dealing with my anger ever
since I saw her picking those protected flowers
earlier. And now I'm going to have such a trauma. Do
you have any aspirin?"
"Sure," said the Wolf.
"Thanks."
"I feel your pain," said the Wolf, and he patted the
woodchopper on his firm, well padded back, gave a
little belch, and said "Do you have any Maalox?"
April 21, 2006
Sockpuppets Of The World, Unite!
Today's subject is all about blogging. It started when I read Daniel Henninger's column in the Wall Street Journal: Disinhibition Nation. The short version is simply Sturgeon's Law: 90% of everything is crap. And O'Toole's commentary applies to Sturgeon as much as Murphy: Sturgeon was an optimist. But Mr. Henninger is right in my experience: people are far less inhibited on the internet than real life (or what they should be. Please, don't let it all hang out).
And now we turn to sockpuppets. Michael Hiltzik was caught employing sockpuppets by Patrick Frey, AKA Patterico, and had his LA Times blog suspended while the paper investigates. Of course, he's not the only person caught with his hands in a couple of socks: John Lott (AKA Mary Radosh) comes to mind. The lure of disinhibition is hard to resist for people who must maintain a certain decorum because we (that's an internet we, not a royal we) know who they are when what they'd really like is the freedom to let loose with their real feelings. What stands out about Mr. Hiltzick is his utter lack of class or shame when caught. Of course, Patterico is all over that sorry excuse of reasoning and ties it into the larger trend we see in the media - they lie every day and have no shame about it either.
So have I ever used a sockpuppet? No, I've always posted under my own name in blogs and on forums. Sometimes I've come late to a conversation and discovered another Kevin Murphy there, in which case I called my self Kevin "the other" Murphy. Isn't the true test of character what you do when you think nobody is looking? Sure it would be nice to anonymously blast people and say everything I think, but then isn't that a test on what and how you should say things? So I aways try to talk and write as if my name were attached, and the easiest way to do that is to actually attach my name. I understand that for certain people in certain situations that isn't possible, but I'm not in that kind of situation.
And yes, I think I have had a couple of commenters here use sock puppets based on IP addresses and quality of the remarks. I understand that IP address isn't enough alone because if you dial up into a large provider like AOL you get whatever IP address they have available. Will I out you? Hey this is my place, so if I think I should I will. Generally, I don't care.
Back to John Lott for a minute. His sock puppetry was exposed by an aussie named Tim Lambert who is obsessed with sockpuppetry, seeing them on the hand of anyone who disagrees with him. He may even have a couple of socks on his own hands.
I can actually see a valid reason for sockpuppets - if you want your ideas considered for themselves and not dissmiss or accepted because you are well known to the community. But in this case, I think when the dust settles it would be best to reveal your deception. Otherwise, it's just lying by another name, because you are trying to deceive people Unlike simply saying something inaccurate, the point of lying is deception.
Just remember, be careful out there.
April 20, 2006
Rumsfeld For Press Secretary
So President Bush needs a new press secretary, and Ed Driscoll has a couple of candidates. My own would be to have Don Rumsfeld slide over to take that position. Who better to do battle with the forces of darkness every day? Now that al qaida is on the run, he can turn his attention to islamofascism's last bastion of support.
After watching him actually say "my goodness gracious" in response to a question from a reporter the other day at a press conference that was mainly about how some tough guy generals were complaining about how mean Rumsfeld was -- a regular Dinsdale Piranha -- I knew he was a black belt in verbal aikido. Of course he said it while the look on his face said "you are a moron who smells like stinky cheese, bigtime. And I mean bigtime on both the moron and the smell." Since most communication is mostly non-verbal, you need a guy who can communicate so well both verbally and physically.
And the left would clearly like him, since they didn't think McClellan was a good speaker, unlike Rumsfeld.
Tempest Meet Teapot
Hugh Hewitt makes a good point about the media pushing the story about dissenting generals calling for Rumsfelds resignation:
Why are MSMers Broder and Dionne willing to assign such great credibility to a half dozen generals (out of at least 4,700 and perhaps as many as 7,000 retired gerenals and admirals) when there is no evidence that they have credited similar insider criticism of their own business, say from Bernard Goldberg, John Stossel and Michael Medved to name just three MSM-insiders turned MSM critics.
My news judgement tells me this is a popular story with the media only because they hate Rumsfeld (and the feeling is apparently mutual) and a perfect example of how the liberal media monoculture distorts not just the story, but story placement as well. Of course, I don't bother with Broder and Dionne because (1) I already know their take on any given subject, and (2) it lacks depth and undertanding.
Crash the Movie
My wife and I found an idle moment to watch Crash a while back -- I think it was a free weekend on Showtime or something. It features a large cast who with a couple of exceptions play racists of varying race and ethnicity. I thought the racism was exaggerated for effect, as you will find few people who are so openly and unconflictedly racist.
I don't know that I can say that I enjoyed it since it is a pretty bleak movie, but I was pleasantly surprised by it. I didn't find it an indictment of American society as racist, but an indictment of racism, or better yet to use the words of Andrew Young, ethnocentricity itself. Crash is the best endorsement of color blind society I've seen, as the message I took away from the film is that people who are obsessed with race/ethnic origin make their own lives worse. They just pass the hate around. They were in prisons for their own making. As I've observed before, if virtue is its own reward, vice is its own punishment. There are three characters who aren't racists -- the DA played by Brendan Fraser, the locksmith played by Michael Pena, and the daughter played by Karina Arroyava -- and while they are affected by racism, they aren't actually hurt by it like the others are. In fact, one is even saved by another. They do not pass the hate around. But while the racist cop played by Matt Dillon is able to rise above his hatred at a critical moment, the movie ends with more hatred all around.
Another thing that struck me was how desperately lonely all these people were, but were unable to reach out past the bars of their own making. Their lives were hell. Which put me in mind of this.
April 19, 2006
The Politics Of Roads
The Missouri Department of Transportation is working on I-270 in West St. Louis County. They have ground off the top layer of concrete in the two lanes that still have concrete surfaces from Highway 40 (yes, I know it's officially I-64) to I-70. Normally I'm not one to complain about road work, but this time I am. To my untrained eye, there was nothing wrong with road surface on that stretch of I-270. I'm assuming (since there is nothing about the work on their website) that they will then resurface the whole highway, even though there are much worse stretches of pavement - like I-270 between I-70 and I-370, which they did a "micro" resurfacing to a few years back and which is in terrible shape.
I just wonder if it isn't just a way to spend money and maintain visibility in a part of the state that has a lot of affluent voters. And it only makes me dislike amendment 3 even more. MODOT tried a couple of times to get tax hikes for roads but they were voted down. So they hit on a different approach - they would ask the voters to stop the "diversion" of gas and license tax revenue to non-road related spending. MODOT told us we could get better roads "for free". I voted against it for the simple reason that it would mean cuts in other places that would be determined later and this time I agreed with the Sierra Club. In fact, Archpundit said that the amendment would turn victory in the governor's race into the booby prize because whoever became governor would be forced to make big cuts in spending.
So after some very unpopular cuts in state spending for which Gov. Blunt has taken a lot of heat, MODOT is spending money for no apparent reason. To all my fellow Missourians who voted yes on amendment 3, I hope you're satisfied.
For Us But Not You
One of the things I dislike the press for is the way they hound people who have suffered a profound emotional experience - the loss of a child, displaced by a natural disaster, victim of a terrible crime. David Gelernter wrote eloquently about the hounding in his book Drawing Life. And when called on it, they always tell us not to shoot the messenger, they have no choice because it's what the public wants.
Jill Carroll came home from being kidnapped in Iraq, and after a couple of brief statements the press has respected her request to respect her privacy. What about the clamoring of the public that must be obeyed? I guess that can be ignored for a fellow member of the press. Too bad they excercise such restraint for other people.
Freakonomics: My Take
I read Freakonomics last week. My brother Sean has already provide a great synopsis, so I'm going to content myself with impressions. I found the book a quick and sometimes enjoyable read, but less so as the book went on. Very interesting info on the bagel man, cheating teachers, and real estate agents, but down hill aftwards. Not what I expected from a brilliant eoncomist writting a best seller -- and the cheating teachers section has nothing to do with economics.
I remember when I was in my one and only Economics class (yes, I loved the subject that much) the textbook, probably Economics by Samuelson, or possibly the professor went on about how economics was the study of scarcity. At the time I thought this a logical error, as economics is the study of the production, distribution, and consumption of wealth. Relative scarcity is an important component of wealth, but it isn't the actual subject matter. I bring this up because there seems to be a trend with economists who confuse techniques used in economics with economics itself. The use of regression analysis (or any statistical analysis for that matter) isn't performing an economics analysis, it's the use of a mathmatical tool widely used by many disciplines, including science and engineering. And while human behavior is an integral part of economics since we're the ones doing the producing, distributing, and consuming, economics isn't just about human behavior nor is all of human behavior of interest to economists. Once again the examination of incentives in areas outside traditional economics isn't economic analysis, it's human behavior analysis. So while I thoroughly agree with the importance of incentives to understanding human behavior, I suppose only in academic circles is the application of common sense thought to be revolutionary. (Yes, I know
The book is made up of chapters that don't have anything to do with each other than Dr. Levitt finds the subjects interesting. Of itself this isn't a problem for me, but there are times when the chapters are contradictory. For instance, Dr. Levitt claims in one chapter that abortion lowered the crime rate, and we can tell this because maternal characteristics such as education, age at birth, and marriage status -- none of which are genetically determined -- has a significant effect on whether their children become criminals. And let me be clear - as confirmation of his thesis on crime and abortion, he says that parents who have children they don't want understandably do a worse job at parenting than those that do so it's reasonable that such children are more likely to commit crime. In the next chapter on how much influence parents have on their children, the conclusion is that it's pretty much genetic. Parents matter because of their genetic contribution, not their parenting contribution. He arrives at this conclusion by looking at educational achievement. So if smart parents have smart kids, can we then generalize that parenting doesn't have much effect on their children? In one chapter parenting does, and in the other parenting doesn't.
And there are a couple of big threads left dangling that I would think somebody like Dr. Levitt would just love to pull. One is if the crime rate has returned to the rate of the first part of the century because of abortion, what else has changed that is keeping it there despite abortion's lowering affect? The other is if parenting (as opposed to the genetics of parents) has no effect on children, is crime genetic?
We're Knights of the Templar
I came across a breathless article about the discovery of remains of several Knights Templar. What really got my attention was this line: "The first bodies of the Knights Templar, the mysterious religious order at the heart of The Da Vinci Code ..." Talk about your movie tie ins. Does the reporter realize that the Da Vinci Code is fiction? (My fast review - good thriller, terrible history, and insulting to the Catholic church.) So I immediately thought, what does Cronaca think? He was even more amused than I was.
April 18, 2006
Two Duke Lacross Team Members Arrested
I haven't been following the whole Duke Lacross team Rape story much, mainly because I was in a news blackout in Lousville when the story broke. I came in to the announcement by defense attorneys that there was no DNA evidence to support the allegation. But 2 of the team members were arrested for rape today. I have no idea what actually happened, and the information I've seen so far raises a lot of questions. Karen Russell of the Huffington Post has a lot of good ones. And someone who has more experience in these matters than me (though he assures me that isn't much) wonders why the "exotic dancers" had no bodyguard(s) with them -- you know, the big guys who come along to make sure that there are no problems - especially with payment and to make nothing gets out of hand. I found the comments to this post interesting as well.
I can't automatically believe every rape allegation, nor can I discount every rape allegation. But the burden of proof is on the accuser, and at this point there is no evidence in the public record that the lacross players are guilty of raping this woman beyond her claim. Maybe that's enough to take it to a jury, but I don't see how that's enough to convict.
What A Blog Needs Is A Good Pointless Food Fight
I often wonder if I would get more readers if I got into more food fights. I don't get into pissing contests with other bloggers, I try to be calm and reasonable when I write, though there are some exceptions. I always ask myself, but what if I'm wrong? I gave up posting on big name lefty sites for the same reason I suspect a lot of lefties gave up posting on big name righty sites - there is not interest in dialogue or understanding, just serial abuse of the heretic.
(How do you explain the popularity of Instapundit then? Because you know there will always be fresh post when you go there. I can only surmise that the professor has hordes of grad students posting since no human being can post that frequently and retain a job, stay married and be a father. Oh, scratch the job thing, he's a professor.)
I'm not a big fan of Michelle Malkin because I think she often goes overboard (though less so than Ann Coulter). On the other hand, she provokes an even greater overreaction on the part of lefty readers. Hey, posting contact information to the internet that is provided "for immediate release" in a press release is not an offense. Making death threats (which she didn't do) is. To all those chewing the scenery over Michelle, when she is the calm, reasonable one, it's time to stop throwning the food and start eating it while hoping you got more traffic out of it than she did.
April 17, 2006
Blessed Easter
For me Easter is the most important rememberence of Jesus. I do play favorites when it comes to Bible passages (most of Leviticus ranks pretty low with me), but this is one of my favorites:
Your attitude should be the same as that of Christ Jesus:
Who, being in very nature God, did not consider equality with God something to be grasped, but made himself nothing, taking the very nature of a servant, being made in human likeness. And being found in appearance as a man, he humbled himself and became obedient to death— even death on a cross! Therefore God exalted him to the highest place and gave him the name that is above every name, that at the name of Jesus every knee should bow, in heaven and on earth and under the earth, and every tongue confess that Jesus Christ is Lord, to the glory of God the Father.
It's all about me, and it's all about Jesus.
Christmas is about God sending his very best, and Easter is about the fulfillment of Christian life. He came, He died, and He lived again so that we too may know God and live with Him, now and forever. Thank you Jesus.
Happy Easter
I noticed it on Saturday when about the 4th working person told me "Happy Easter" in establishments where they only go so far as "Happy Holidays" at Christmas time. Isn't there supposed to be a War on Christians? Did we win and nobody tell me? Or is this just a truce for Easter? Maybe they figured I wouldn't be out and about on Passover if I were Jewish. Of course, I'm sensitive enough to worry that when clerks were wishing me Happy New Year on or about January 1st they were upsetting the Chinese and Moslems who celebrate New Years at a different time. Oddly enough, nobody told me "Have a good Good Friday" on Friday.
I'm taking my cue from Joshua:
But if serving the Lord seems undesirable to you, then choose for yourselves this day whom you will serve, whether the gods your forefathers served beyond the River, or the gods of the Amorites, in whose land you are living. But as for me and my household, we will serve the Lord."
So (belatedly) Happy Easter, Happy Passover, Happy Days, or even Happy Cranky Atheist Day to you, as the case may be.
April 13, 2006
The Thursday Report
Geitner Simmons has a series of fascinating maps of religions in America. The Bible belt really isn't a belt as much as a tie - running north-south through the midsection of the country instead of east west, and cuts across most major denominations.
Reason 1 to hate the press: they lie.
I think the average American citizen should be able to carry a concealed weapon as part of our right to self defense. And when such laws are passed (as Missouri did a few years ago), the streets don't run with blood from shootouts over nothing. But that doesn't mean I don't think there is something wrong with John Lott or his research.
Reason 2 to hate the press: they slant.
Maybe the Duke lacross team isn't the most important rape story out there.
Reason 3 to hate the press: good reporters have bad motives.
Autism is a real problem. Fortunately, autism may not be a growing problem, let alone brought on by mercury in vaccines.
Reason 4 to hate the press: Their focus is one the wrong people, places, and things.
Tom McMahon is having fun with hats (don't forget to check out his own picture). Maybe Tom will help me out with this photo, which was my winning entry in the Studmuffins of Conservatism at the Evangelical Outpost. And yes, that is an old photo of me, but I've only grown more handsome in the interval.
Reason 5 to hate the press: they want to set the agenda.
How can you go wrong with a post entitled "The Prehistory of Python? You can't, especially since the python is of the Monty variety.
Reason 6 to hate the press: they are in denial about their problems.
I'm number 10 when searching for "I love Wal-Mart". I'm still waiting for the HDTV.
Reason 7 to hate the press: they fall for anything if it fits in with their agenda.
Have you read your Michael Totten today? You should.
How about your Michael Yon? He's in Afganistan now.
And to wrap up, something quick of my own. The problem isn't a nuclear Iran, the problem is a nuclear power run be Islamofascist nutjobs - like the one's ruling Iran at the moment.
April 12, 2006
A Different Kind of Jobs Program
Yesterday, Opinion Journal's Best of the Web linked to this article about Saudi Arabia replacing male clerks with female clerks at lingerie shops with a remark about Maureen Dowd.
Maureen Dowd!?! I'm thinking "Lingerie Shops in Saudia Arabia!?!" Isn't that like a liquor store at a Baptist convention? Or Karaoke night at the Trappist monastery?
This move isn't a response to Saudi men around women in scanty dress, but a jobs program for women. Next women sales clerks will take over other clothing stores. The government hopes to create 200,000 jobs for women. There must be a lot of lingerie stores to support those kinds of numbers.
Since the female form is so absolutely lust inducing to men that women must go covered head to toe, where exactly do they keep purveyors of lust enhancing clothing? I'd assumed carefully guarded locations, but nope, according to the article, they are "along the streets, central markets and major shopping centers." They must have the mirrors inside the changing rooms. Or as the song says, Arabian nights, like Arabian days, are hotter than hot, just in much different ways. Know we know the answer to the question, "what comes between me and my Burqa?" isn't nothing.
Along similar lines, when I was in Pakistan, you could tell the hotel employees who regularly got to work in the pool area where the European stewardesses hung out in their European swimwear from those who didn't -- they were the ones who could actually do what they were there to do. The two guys who came out the change a light bulb one day - they just pretty much stopped and stared and ogled. Finally one of the waiters had to say something to them - it only took half and hour to change a light bulb.
April 11, 2006
Chess in Louisville
My son was an entrant at the National Junior High Chess Championship Tournament this past weekend. Before you get too excited, it was an if you pay the entrance fee, you get to play kind of tournament (an open, not an invitational). So we drove down to Louisville Wednesday evening so that he could play in the Bughouse tournament Thursday morning.
Since we didn't find a partner until the week of travel, we spent the night in a motel in Corydon, IN that I found on the internet Tuesday night. I was so worried that since we sould be arriving at about 9PM they might give my room away I called the motel to make sure it was gauranteed for late arrival. When we pulled up Wednesday night, I found out why the clerk was so non-chalant: There were about six cars in the lot and the motel looked to have over a hundred rooms. I went with the cheapest hotel I could find, and by golly I found it. As I told my brother when he called, it was like one of those motels movie desparados hide out in while on the lam.
Thursday morning I checked in to the "Legendary" Galt House Hotel. It only took half an hour because a different Kevin Murphy had checked in the day before and somehow the clerk gave him my reservation. The perils of a semi-common name: common enough that mix-ups occur, rare enough nobody is on guard against them. But Michael Edwards, the man in charge, got it all straightened out and we did get a room. Shabby and without a view, but a room nevertheless. Fortunately, Kyle's bughouse partner and family arrived in the lobby just after us and since they weren't checking in until the next day (they were staying in a nice motel in Corydon) they registered for the Bughouse and starting playing - chess that is.
One of the odd things about national chess tournaments is that you seem to run into the same people over and over during the tournament. So before and during the bughouse tournament, Kyle and his partner played bughouse, mainly with these guys. I wondered why D, who was really good at Bughouse, didn't play in the tournament. Anyway, they did OK in the Bughouse tournament, well enough that afterwards my son wanted to play in the Blitz tournament that night. Last year's Blitz tournament was painful - not only was it a disorganized mess, but he lost some games because of the one illegal move = a loss rule, so if you don't notice you're in check (and tournament players don't tell each other), you lose. Kyle didn't want to play in the Blitz tournament this year. But when the Bughouse tournament really went smoothly - starting on time, pairings up in advance, the way a tournament ought to be - and he and his partner held their own in Bughouse against kids rated much higher than them, he changed his mind. He did better in this year's Blitz tournament, and managed to come in fourth in the U1000 section (i.e. his rating is udner a thousand), but sadly they only gave out trophies for the top three in a section.
Friday morning he played in a simul with Grandmaster Gregory Kaidanov. Out of the 22 players opposing Kaidanov, one beat him and one drew him. Kyle, unsurprisingly, lost. Still, Kyle thought it worth the 25 dollars it cost to participate. And guess what -- also playing in the simul was one of the boys he played bughouse with for fun the day before. In fact, that's Kyle in the picture wearing the black shirt three boys down from D.
Friday night there was a lot of excitement. First there was a fire in the restaurant below the skittles room which evacuated. Just after the fire trucks pulled up, everybody had to evacuate the towers with the hotel rooms and take shelter in the meeting rooms because a tornado came to town. The sirens blared throughout the hotel. I evacuated the conservatory with, who else?, and found Kyle smiling in the Grand Ballroom where the tournament was held. Some of the kids were not used to tornados and were freaking out. The tournament was suspended during the excitement, and after what seemsed like forever especially with the sirens blaring, playing resumed. Kyle's opponent conceded during the break (Kyle was up a rook and two bishops) so we just went up to the room and watched TV.
Saturday and Sunday were filled with Chess - normal chess inside the Grand Ballroom, bughouse and blitz outside. Kyle didn't want to leave the hotel. Kyle didn't want to leave the exhibition area outside the Ballroom because you could always get a game there. We did go the the fancy revolving restaurant on top of one of the hotel towers, but that was as far as I could budge him. All things must come to an end, so Sunday afternoon following the last game we drove back home to our own beds and the funWife's cooking.
April 5, 2006
Thanks to All Poll Workers
I voted yesterday. As always, my polling place was staffed by seriously old people. As I was going through the line of getting my ballot, one of the staffers complained to another that this getting up before breakfast was for the birds. So I chimed in with "You're making Democracy possible. Thanks." I got no response, so I have to assume that I didn't speak loudly enough for either of them to hear. But I still want to thank you two and all the other people who take the time to make democracy possible.
Unity Takes Time
Cori doesn't seem to think that it's right for a columnist at the paper to break news while the reporters sit on their hands. Don't read the St. Louis Post-Dispatch then, where columnists routinely break news that their reporters show little interest or ability to cover.
But what's more important is what's actually reported -- the progress in the talks between the political parties in Iraq to forge a government:
The political agreements are fragile, and they will be blown away if the factions can't form a government soon to put them in practice. Meanwhile, beyond the Green Zone, Iraqis are still being slaughtered every day in the streets. But given where Iraq was six months ago -- when Sunni and Shiite leaders were barely talking -- their agreement on the framework for a unity government is important. These negotiations may not succeed, but they are not a fairy-tale fantasy, as some critics argue.
We Americans are an impatient lot. From my meagre experiences abroad, time takes on a different meaning once you leave the country.
I'm wondering if that chick at the AP will take Mr. Ignatius to task for the "as some critics argue" line. OK, that was a rhetorical device because I'm not wondering at all, since she didn't note that President Bush was following the lead of the reporting about him which is routinely larded up with "some critics claim" constructions without ever naming the critics.
Couric Jumps Ship
Katie Couric is leaving NBC's Today show to anchor the CBS evening news and take part in 60 minutes. As Rachel at TinkertyTonk notes "I cannot remember the last time I watched the network evening news. Can you?" Ah, no, I can't. And the next question would be when did I last watch the evening news and not notice their bias?
The NYT article gets the salient fact right here: "The evening newscasts have for some time been programs in decline at all three networks, with audiences that have grown markedly older." I do clearly remember the parade of denture, medicare supplement, and adult diaper ads last time I watched even though I couldn't tell you when that was. So great, a women gets to helm the nightly newscast when pretty much nobody cares.
April 4, 2006
Cyprus
Mr. World Traveller Michael Totten recommends reading this article about a divided Cyprus while he works on his next installments. I typically heed such advice and as per usual, I'm happy I did.
I'm old enough to remember the summer morning when Turkey invaded Cyprus. I was eating breakfast before summer school and watching the whole thing on our TV in the kitchen. Paratroopers calmly landing, cutting their chutes, and forming up into their units shown live on TV. Years later my wife and I had a Greek tour guide -- Terry. Terry wasn't fond of America. He told the story of how he had been set up as a hotelier in Cyprus by the Germans as amends for their harming (tortured? killed?) his father during WWII. But in 1974 he lost everything when the Turks invaded Cyprus and the American armed forces did nothing.
My wife and I still say "Slowly, slowly" in imitation of Terry who really was a good guide because he looked out for all of us). He deliberately told us everything three times (not in succession) because as he told us on day 1, if I don't tell you three times, someone won't remember and then they'll say "you didn't tell me". Danged if some people didn't remember even after he told us everything three times.
April 3, 2006
Immigration: Mexico
Immigration has moved to the front burner in this country. Thoughtful people are writing thoughtfully - Jane Galt has a trio (is that a theme today?) of such posts:
Some rambling thoughts on immigration,
Unwanted guests?
More on immigration.
What I haven't seen is what is driving the issue today - it's really about Mexican immigrants and the large influx of illegal immigrants over our border with Mexico. Absent that large flow over a large border, we wouldn't be having this discussion. I guess nobody wants to sound like a racist, but what grabs people's attention isn't how many technically savvy people come in on HB-1 visas from Asia and India, but how many poor Mexicans are willing to risk death to live in the United States.
The stakes are high all around on this issue - for both Mexico and the United States. We really want to get the answer right -- and that does include all aspects of immigration, including how many HB-1 visas are issued.
And let's face it, its better to be poor in the United States than it is in Mexico. I can't say as I blame people who are trying to make a better life for themselves. But we need to balance everybodies interests, and not focus too exclusively on one particular group.
We need to take a dispassionate look at what we want the end state to be, and then figure out how to get there. I'd start with a Mexico that poor people aren't willing to risk death to leave. So our ultimate goal is a Mexico that has the political and economic institutions that are able to take care of all its citizens. Of course, we have to (1) survive in the meantime, while (2) we help Mexico get there. So that means that while we look at the range of options on how the US deals with immigration, we need to always be looking at the effect that these measures have on Mexico (and really all the countries that have people who want to get out). For instance, building a wall along the entire border - what are the effects on immigration, the effects on the US, the effects on Mexico - all these things need to be considered, not just one.
Mark On Movies
I admit it - I'm fascinated by movies. I can still remember the days when I lived in LA and a visit to my brother in the Bay Area was its own movie festival. Mark at Kaedrin also likes movies, and he has a trio of posts
Offbeat Movie Corner -- he likes The Matador. Greg Kinnear isn't in many movies, but they are usually good (he's Gandalf the White to Owen Wilson's Saruman the White).
Piecing Together Obscurity -- this could apply to X Files as well - a show I finally just gave up on as it constantly promised, but never delivered.
Philadelphia Film Festival -- Mark sees a lot of movies so you don't have to.