Funmurphys: the Blog

Cards Win Series, Experts Upset

Cardinal Nation is giddy after our beloved Cards won the world series. I got to hear the final inning called by an eleven year old watching it on a battery powered TV in a muddy field. We were camping at S-F scout ranch and had all gone to our tents for the night.

Boy I don't get it, the Cardinals win the World Series, and a lot of people are more upset than usual that their team didn't win. Let's get one thing straight: TV ratings for the World Series have been dropping for a while - last year's contest was the worst rated up until this years, and with the scorn the national media heaped on the Cardinals, would the average fan tune in?

But were the Cardinals really that bad a team? I don't think so, and the team in October looked far more like the guys who stormed out to a 32-17 record at the start of the season than the guys who stumbled around in September and almost blew winning the division. And why not, they weren't the same guys.

The gradual accretion of outcomes - pitch after pitch, at-bat after at-bat, game after game - yields a deep body of evidence about which teams and players are the best. By the end of the season, we know not only who's more valuable, but by how much.

At least there are some people who aren't St. Louis Fans who think the Cards were underappreciated:

The Cardinals team we saw over the last few weeks is the same one we've seen pretty much every year this decade, when they've been on one of the less-remarked upon runs of greatness I can think of. With the exception of this year and 2003, the Cardinals have won between 93 and 105 games every year this decade. In every year save 2003, they've either won the National League pennant or been beaten by the team that did. Short of the Yankees and Braves, no team has had a more successful run in the wild card era.

As for those who remain unconvinced, well, too bad. Get over it, the Cardinals won. I don't care what you think because reality says otherwise.

Michael J Fox, Missouri, and Amendment 2

I didn't have a lot of reaction to Michael J Fox's ad for embryonic stem cell research and Claire McCaskill when I first saw it. Surprise, surprise, surprise, a political ad that doesn't tell the whole truth. Personally, I found it much more interesting that he pronounced Missouri as Missoura - the pronunciation used in the rural part of the state which means the ad was aimed more at conservative democratic voters and not the urban and suburban voters.

I don't get a lot of the complaints - Mr. Fox is entitled to his opinion, he's entitled to express it, and he's entitled to endorse politicians as he sees fit. If a politician or political group thought putting my mug on a TV ad would help persuade people to their position, you'd be seeing my mug on TV ads.

As far as playing up his disease, Parkinson's is a terrible disease. And for those of us (yes, me included) who are opposed to embryonic stem cell research, I think we owe it to sufferers to hear them out, to see how it affects them, and then to tell them the honest truth of our thoughts and they should hear us out. If you want my sympathy Michael, you already have it. But that doesn't mean that your suffering, or my suffering, outweighs all else.

Nobody is against adult stem cell research. Lot's of people are against embryonic stem cell research because they think as I do that you are destroying human life in the process, or something close enough that it's protection outweighs possible cures - especially when adult stem cells show much greater promise for real life cures. Why is it that supporters of embryonic stem cells won't come out and make that distinction? Given that is the reason that most of us who oppose ESCR actually oppose it, why make an emotional play that has nothing to do with our opposition? Is it because fundamentally you don't understand the opposition?

Last night I saw the other ad, this time with a mix of local and national celebrities, this time with a couple of St. Louis celebrities, Kurt Warner and Jeff Suppan. Was it wrong for them to speak out? While I think the Fox ad did a better job of presenting it's case, the rebuttal ad did a better job of addressing the actual Amendment 2.

Political Strategist Straw Poll

I'm holding a referendum on Tom Maguire:

Is Tom Maguire

[ ] Not Smart Enough to be a strategist for the Democrats, or

[ ] Too Smart to be a strategist for the Democrats.

I don't want to bias the results by proclaiming my opinion, but let me just say that if Tom were to become a strategist for the Democrats the age of signs and wonders would clearly be upon us.

Of course he's too smart to be a strategist for the Democrats; he's too smart to be a strategist for the Republicans too. I could become President if Tom became my brain like a certain other, better known team (that actually is a team).

Romney Sets A Reporter Straight

I want to have Mitt Romney's baby:

That has to be the best smooth rebuke I've seen.

Via Powerline.

If I Kill Diablo, Can I Skip 4th Grade?

So it's official now: the Federation of American Scientists has come out in favor of using video games for education. Who am I to argue with that?

The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars christened them "serious games" four years ago, mobilizing a loose-knit collection of game developers, educational foundations, grassroots organizations, human rights advocates, medical professionals, first responders, homeland security consultants, and assorted others around a common cause. Together--the experts provide the facts, the game developers the technological know-how--they've created a nascent industry. Their goal: To convince nonbelievers that games teach just as well as books, film, or any other medium.

"Games let us create representations of how things work in a medium that's built to do exactly that," says Ian Bogost, an assistant professor of digital media at the Georgia Institute of Technology and the author of Unit Operations: An Approach to Videogame Criticism. "If you want to explain how a nuclear power plant works in a textbook, you have to demonstrate it with a logical written argument. But with games, the player can literally interact with the model of how a system works."

They felt it was imporant enough to hold a Games Summit. No word on their vote for game of the year.

A Little Management Wisdom

I'm always on the lookout for catchy titles, so of course Crappy People Vs. Crappy Systems caught my eye.

This tendency to look for individual goats – and heroes – isn’t just a problem that permeates the world of sports. It is reflected in many misguided ideologies and management practices, which focus excessive energy on hiring stars and weeding-out mediocre and poor performers, and insufficient energy on building a great system that enables most competent people to succeed.

But I think Mr. Sutton is entirely correct that systems have much more impact on workers than workers on systems, so companies are better off perfecting the system than trying to find the perfect worker. I'm reminded how Enron was big on finding stars and we all know how that turned out.

Did the Rise of Mountains Cause the Lowering of Temperatures?

I'm a global warming skeptic - and by that I mean I'm skeptical that human actions are the driving factor behind current climate change. Now, that doesn't mean we aren't, that just means I'm not convinced that we are. So I read this article on a connection between the Appalachian Mountains and global cooling with interest -- not because it supports my skepticism, but because it doesn't.

One such debate is whether atmospheric carbon dioxide truly drives Earth's climate. The planet has shifted between greenhouse conditions and icehouse conditions throughout its history, and research from Saltzman's team strongly suggests that carbon dioxide levels are a key cause.

"In this study, we're seeing remarkable evidence that suggests atmospheric CO2 levels were in fact dropping at the same time that the planet was getting colder. So this significantly reinforces the idea that CO2 is a major driver of climate," Saltzman said.

...

"We observed a major shift in the geochemical record, which tells us something must have changed in the oceans," Young said.

The timing of the strontium ratio decline matches the rise of the Appalachian Mountains . The crustal plate underneath what is now the Atlantic Ocean pushed against the eastern side of North America, lifting ancient volcanic rock up from the seafloor and onto the continent.

This kind of silicate rock weathers quickly, Young explained. It reacts with CO2 and water, and the rock disintegrates. Carbon from the CO2 is trapped in the resulting sediment.

The chemical reaction that weathered away part of the Appalachians would have consumed large amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere –- right around the time that the Ordovician ice age began.

So we have one case, and the article goes on to say that the rise of the Himalayas may have caused our current ice age (we're in an interglacial period at the moment). So now we have two possibles, and wikipedia claims there have been 4 major ice ages.

That leaves us with some unanswered questions, like what about the other two ice ages, and how did CO2 get back into the atomosphere to end an ice age, and what is driving our current cycle of glacials/interglacials? I'm still stuck with suggestive, but not conclusive.

Can The Dead Sue for Defamation of Character?

I watched Kingdom of Heaven the other night, not all of it though, because I just couldn't take it anymore. It's a wretched movie, and I suppose what galls me the most is if you're going to make a work of fiction, don't try to pass it off as based on fact. And by that I mean don't use a real setting, with characters named after real people, with some events from the world of reality but most from some other world of make believe. It's just despicable.

The Wisdom of James Woods

James Woods makes the uncomplicated easy to understand.

Restaurants:

“I like to use the metaphor of my buddy Dan Tana. At his (restaurant’s) 40th anniversary, somebody asked me, ‘Why do you think his restaurant’s successful?’ I said, ‘It’s really very simple. He serves good food and it’s a comfortable place to stick your ass while you’re eating it.’ It’s not rocket science. You know these places: You go in and there’s some froufrou guy has fixed everything and they spent five million dollars on the f@&^ing chandeliers and you’re eating some crap on a plate with a bunch of swirly crap on it. If they give you steak, French fries and a f@&^in’ booth, they’ll be in business for a hundred years. You think some guy wants to sit perched on a little wooden chair eating a sliver of somebody’s liver?”

Movies:

“I look at movies and they’re all so f@&^ing terrible. People ask, ‘Why aren’t movies more successful?’ It’s really a simple answer: It’s because they stink. Three simple words: Because they f@&^ing stink. That’s four words, but you can’t write the f@&^ing word. They stink, they stink, they stink, what’s wrong with you? They stink. Do better movies. … Finally, I saw a good movie – ‘The Departed.” And look what it took: It took Marty Scorsese, Matt Damon, Mark Wahlberg, Leonardo DiCaprio, Jack Nicholson, (screenwriter) Bill Monahan – and it’s based on another movie.”

There is an amazing parallel between the movie and restaurant businesses though - good product and a comfortable place to park your keister while partaking. That might sum up a lot of businesses actually.

I'd love to hear how he'd uncomplicate women, but I imagine I couldn't post it here.

Thanks to The Mayor of Television for the interview, and Libertas for the pointer.

I Have A Dream

Here's a Democratic platform I can get behind. Too bad it's only satire, although I don't doubt that Scott Ott also wishes it wasn't. Could a Democrat today say with a straight face:

"Let the word go forth from this time and place, to friend and foe alike, that the torch has been passed to a new generation of Americans, born in this century, tempered by war, disciplined by a hard and bitter peace, proud of our ancient heritage, and unwilling to permit the slow undoing of those human rights to which this nation has always been committed and to which we are committed today at home and around the world.

"Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and success of liberty."

On The Other Hand, A Sock

This could be an interesting article, if it were written in english, and not academicese:

There is growing evidence that consumers are influenced by Internet-based opinion forums before making a variety of purchase decisions. Firms whose products are being discussed in such forums are therefore tempted to manipulate consumer perceptions by posting costly anonymous messages that praise their products. This paper offers a theoretical analysis of the impact of such behavior on firm profits and consumer surplus. There are three main results. First, if every firm's manipulation strategy is a monotonically increasing (decreasing) function of that firm's true quality, strategic manipulation of online forums increases (decreases) the information value of a forum to consumers. This result implies the existence of settings where online forum manipulation benefits consumers. Second, equilibria where strategies are monotonically increasing (decreasing) functions of a firm's true quality exist in settings where the firm's net payoff function, inclusive of the cost of manipulation, is supermodular (submodular) in the firm's quality and manipulation action. Third, in a broad class of settings, if the precision of honest consumer opinions that firms manipulate is sufficiently high, firms of all types, as well as society, would be strictly better off if manipulation of online forums was not possible. Nonetheless, firms are locked into a "rat race" and forced to spend resources on such profit-reducing activities; if they don't, consumer perceptions will be biased against them. The social cost of online manipulation can be reduced by developing "filtering" technologies that make it costlier for firms to manipulate. Interestingly, as the amount of user-contributed online content increases, it is firms, and not consumers, that have most to gain from the development of such technologies.

I also catch more than a wiff of the two handed economist here - on the one hand, company sock puppets could decrease the information value of a forum to consumers, and the other hand, they could benefit consumers. OK Einstein, just what are the "settings" that benefit consumers.

I think companies would be better off the old fashioned way, that is, (1) focus on doing a good job over the entire lifecycle of their product/service, and (2) use clearly identified spokespeople in forums who are (a) honest and (b) engaging. Sock puppets are for losers.

A Little Economic Reading

I just finished reading The Elusive Quest For Growth and The Undercover Economist and I have to give a two thumbs up recommendation for both.

The Elusive Quest For Growth chronicles the attempts over the years to get poor countries to grow economically. It makes for depressing reading, but at leasts confirms my opinion that bad government is the number one problem for developing countries. Sadly, knowing that doesn't make the problem easier, because how do you change the incentives that make everyone's best interest to steal now to incentives that make everyone's best interest to, well, obey property laws or put another way, to take money now versus to provide something in return for money later?

The Undercover Economist is an excellent primer in economic thinking and covers a lot of ground. Mr Harford provides clear explanations by first starting with familiar situations and then scaling them up to more general or important ones. My only sour note was in the brief discussion of used cars - the way I see dealers getting around the assymetric information problem is through warantees - by standing behind every car they sell -- and not on spending money on buildings to indicate they will be around later (at least in the US).

If I had books like this to read back in my econ 101 days instead of dry academic textbooks, maybe it wouldn't have taken so long for me to discover the joys of economics.

What Is A Fair Price?

I know a lot of us view the gyrations of the price of a gallon of gas with a mixture of suspicion and alarm -- and yes, a feeling of unfairness. Researchers from the University of South Carolina examined the perception of fairness and dynamic pricing and came to an unstartling understanding:

Consumers have higher fairness perceptions and satisfaction regardless of the price level when they play a role in the price setting process rather than when prices are set by the retailer," the researchers explain. Additionally, "consumers view price changes within very short time periods as more unfair than changes over a more extended time period."

Spot The Quagmire

A look at some statistics you'll never read in your local newspaper or see on your TV. Maybe that's why they don't deliver eyeballs like they used to.

Lost In Translation

Here's my problem, when I hear the phrase "common good" I think "tragedy of the commons".

Perhaps my problem is that I've found I like economics outside the academic setting, where I found it boring and repulsive.

Necessity

Congratulations to Matthew Haugland, winner of the 2006 Collegiate Inventors Competition for inventing a better way to forecast nighttime temperatures:

When Matt Haugland was a child in San Jose, California, he remembers that his parents gave him a small thermometer that he used to measure the temperature in different spots around his yard. Although the yard wasn’t large, Haugland was fascinated by the temperature differences in the different parts of his yard. As he grew older, he became fascinated by the microclimates of the San Francisco Bay region and the reasons behind them.

Consequently, Haugland hoped to own land for the purpose of researching the microclimates on it. In 1999, he transferred from school in San Jose to the University of Oklahoma in search of affordable land. He bought a five-acre plot and installed several weather stations across it. Through his research, based on weather observations from these stations, Haugland developed a weather forecasting technique that accurately predicts nighttime temperatures.

As Haugland says, “I’m hoping that this model will help improve weather forecasts around the world.” The implications of his work are broad, from helping farmers protect their crops from frost and freezing, to helping predict nighttime fog formation, the biggest weather-related cause of death in transportation.

You should also check out the Inventor's Hall of Fame while you're at it.

Juan Williams Vs. Sylvester Brown, Round 2

Sylvester Brown has once again taken up the subject of Juan Williams and his book. Sylvester has decided to by and large replow old ground, although at least this time he doesn't try to equate Juan's message to "that the black man is inherently flawed, violent and savage", but hammers the idea that white people have problems too pretty hard:

The breakdown of the black family is evident when 70 percent of black children are born to single mothers, Williams asserts. If this is the case, then America, not just black America, is in a heap of trouble. The U.S. Census Bureau just announced that 50.2 percent of American families are headed by single women. And, according to the National Center for Health Statistics, the number of births to single white women has reached all-time highs, while the birth rate for black teens has dropped to "historic lows."

That sort of positive news doesn't play well in "blame-black" circles. In a society that's grown weary of in-depth social analysis, it's just easier to wrap issues like poverty, crime and single-parent households in a stereotype.

And isn't that really the point Juan Williams is trying to make - for people to get over the blame game, take control of their lives, and do something about their situation? Did Juan ask black people to stop being black, or did he ask them to simply adopt American middle class behavior: get a high school education, don't have children until one is twenty-one and married, work hard at any job, and be good parents? Is there something wrong with that advice? Can only white people follow that advice?

What's Sylvester's argument - don't tell poor black people to clean up their act as long as their are poor white people who aren't cleaning up their act?

Faster Feiler Meets Confirming Best

A couple of years ago my Adult Bible Fellowship teacher (Ken Best) mentioned that people are wired such that the feedback they get from life tends to reinforce (or confirm) their prior opinions, and that's because how we process information depends on what we think it will tell us. I have to say I agree with this observation. Generally, it takes something big (e.g. 9/11) to cause such a disconnect that we actually reexamine our prior opinion, but normally we see what we expect to see and disregard the rest.

Mickey Kaus has championed the Faster Feiler Thesis, which essentially is that we have speeded up both the information flow and its processing for people. And I have to say I also agree with this.

Put the two together, and what do you get - increased polarization. Our opinion is converted from jello to cement in ever faster times. And if there are two sides to every argument, then we have two sides set like epoxy around every policy, every politician, around pretty much everything (those Taste Great/Less Filling ads aren't so funny now). Not only do we process the increased information flow faster, the increased flow drives us to become set in our positions ever faster.

Sound like real life? Perhaps how Bush Derangement Syndrome can become both widespread and hard to cure so quickly? Perhaps why so many people seem to be so completely convinced that they are not just right, but so right that any disagreement can only spring from impure motives -- or you're not just wrong, you're evil.

Interlaken Day 3 - Kevin's Big Adventure

We woke up, had a nice breakfast (included) at the hotel while we watched snow fall at all the mountain attractions live via webcam, and then began the final preparations for the second half of the trip. We strolled across the Harderstrasse to the tourist information office and began to ask questions. We started with easy ones, like where is the Alamo office in town? Oops, we have to ask the person over there because the person I ask only has train type information. So I try again, only to be met with a blank stare and "Alamo? Alamo? I haven't heard of any Alamo." I want to say in the worst way "Don't every say that to a Texan" but the meters running on our vacation time and while I would find it funny, I know by now I won't find it funny after spending 10 minutes trying to explain the joke, and then another 10 trying to explain to my family why I wasted 10 minutes on a lame joke in the first place. Foreign travel can be so brutal. But at least it's clear that there is no Alamo car rental in town. Then we go back to the train guy to ask about the details of booking a ride to the Jungfraujoch. And then I ask a question that has been weighing heavy on our minds since we've had so much low overcast and rain while in Interlaken (and today is no different): what is the weather forecast?

"For tomorrow?" is the reply.

"Yes, and the next few days after that, as long as you're at it."

"It's several things", he says. "Rain, sunshine, cloudy, warm, cold."

"The forecast is for all that, tomorrow?" I ask.

"Oh yes, it could be all that tomorrow", he replies.

"So is it supposed to be one thing the morning, and another in the afternoon?" I ask. Hey, I'm from the midwest, I know all about changeable weather.

"No, it could be anything at anytime tomorrow, you just have to see", he says.

"So I should just look out my window in the morning, and then I'll know what the weather is going to be like that morning?"

"Yes, that's how you do it", he replies.

I feel like Abbot in an Abbot and Costello routine. I'm tempted to say if you don't know the forecast, just tell me so. Don't tell me the forecast is to look out the window in morning.

There's a big difference between where I'm from and Europe - the weather forecast. At home, we have several meteorologists for every newscast, we have constant weather reports on the radio, we even have a whole TV network devoted to weather. People are constantly discussing the weather like a favorite child -- "can you believe what the weather did yesterday, that little dickens?" In Europe, the forecast was treated like some state secret. We could never find out even what the weather the next day was supposed to be like. The hotel in Interlaken was the only one that told you what the weather forecast was for that day - but that day only.

So then it was back to our hotel to call Alamo. I call the 800 number and ask the nice lady on the other end where they have offices in Switzerland. All over she says, and then rattles off a bunch of names. I ask for the number of the office in Lucerne. Great, we could make a trip out of it. I ask if there is any penalty or fee for returning the car to a different location from the one I picked it up at. None she tells me. So we decide we're going to get new train tickets leaving from Interlaken to Venice, with stops to change trains in Spiez and Brig. We'll turn the rental car back in today, and take a train back from Lucerne.

So I call the rental car office for directions. Turns out they are in Lausanne, not Lucerne. And this guy says they only have a few offices, with the closest one to me in Fribourg. Fribourg? I'm sure it's a nice town and all that, but we drove through on the way here and we're not going to make a day out of it there. So I call that number and they tell me there aren't actually in Fribourg, they are in Dudingen. So that's when the funWife tells me that while she and kids take care of the train tickets, I get to go return the car.

"And just how am I supposed to get back?" I ask.

"They have wonderful public transportation in this country. I'm sure you'll take the train or a bus." she replied.

"A bus!?!" I sputter.

"It will be an adventure." she tells me.

It's at this point I realize the sooner the start the sooner I'll get back, so I grab a CD, a jacket, and what little dignity and courage I can summon and head out for my big adventure.

The start was boring - a long drive in the rain. The CD got me through that part. The fun began when I pulled off the autobahn and started to follow the directions the mechanic (apparently he spoke the best English) gave me: In village on main road left side. It's a Renault car dealer with with a Shell gas station and an Alamo sign. Amazingly enough, it was in the village on the main road left side and I found it without any problems. I even passed a train station on the way there. The highpoint of the trip was parking in front in the little yellow rectangle painted on the sidewalk. After a minimum of hassle, gratifiying after the big deal they had made in Geneva about not getting any extra insurance when we rented the car, I was on my way back to the train station. The nice gentleman at Alamo/Shell/Renault had assured me that I could catch a train back to Interlaken without difficulty.

At the train station, Marc and Markus seemed to be happy to be helping some crazy American who presented himself at the Dudingen train station without a clue. They had a great time getting the tickets, explaining where to go to catch the train, how to switch tracks in Bern, explaining the little printout that showed I would take a local train into Bern where I would switch to another train to Interlaken. Thanks you guys, I hope I broke up some of the monotony, you were a big help to me.

And now begins the record of my big adventure, written at the exact moment I lived it:

Dudingen is a charming little town, but Switzerland is filled with exquisite little towns.

Fillstorf was the next stop. It isn't even a wide spot in the road -- a few cars parked in the weeds alongside the road and they didn't even bother opening the doors of the train.

They have a 1st and 2nd class on the trains and boats here. At least in the boats it makes a difference because you can get seats in the breeze, but on the train I think they are there just in case Hyacinth Bucket ever rides.

I am not smitten with Schmitten, our next stop. A couple of people got off who'd gotten on with me in Dudingen, so apparently they are.

Wunnewil - hard to tell as you went through a tunnel just before the station which was in a big ditch. I had no idea that there were so many ugly spots in Switzerland. From Wunnewil, the countryside looks a lot like Missouri, although the buildings quite clearly don't.

Flamott -- another tunnel which meant I only got glimpses of the impressive highway bridges through town. The station was nice in a modern industrial way. But even the traditional cute Swiss architecture couldn't dress the town up much.

Thorishaus Dorf -- The quaint factor is rising, but the tracks are banked in the station giving an odd sway to the train.

Thorishaus Station -- the main business looks to be recycling scrap metal by the train cars on the sidings. But the view of the chalets on the hillsides as we pulled out restores my aesthetic appreciation of Switzerland.

Oberhagen -- about 50 feet from Thorishaus Station, I have to credit it for a lot of charm. I especially like the rock wall built of metal mesh and pebbles.

Niederwagen -- the most noticeable thing is that a lot of passengers get on here. That and the stations are now coming fast and furious.

Bumpliz Sud -- I think we are clearly in the Bern suburbs by now, which means less charm and more graffiti. I hope we don't go to Bumpliz Nord, too.

Bern Ausserholligen -- the apartments along the way look nice, but I'm beginning to feel about graffiti the way I feel about spam - death to graffitiers! The station appears to be under a long highway bridge.

Bern - at last, and now to switch trains. The station is bustling in the middle of a weekday. I use a McClean WC: one franc to take a leak. Does the name play off McDonalds or some notion that celts are clean? On to platform 6. I can't shake the notion I'm on the wrong train, about to hurtle to parts unknown, no matter how often I look at the electronic sign telling me that indeed this train will take me back to Interlaken. Now I'm on a real train, real coaches and I hope a locomotive, although they all look like little electric toys here. Oh well.

I'm hoping on the side with a view -- the lake side and not the poured concrete abutment holding back the mountainside side. Time will tell, and I may have to knock over a few people getting to it. It all depends, do they back in or pull in forwards? Or if they have an engine (I'm still hoping for a locomotive) at both ends,maybe they go in which ever way they need to. I switch sides, thinking we'll pull out and that way will be forward, and now I think I screwed up -- I should be on the left side. Oh well. I can get up again later, the train isn't full.

They announce the stops, and I'm crushed to find out Spiez is pronounced "spits", not "spee-ez" as I've been calling it. Leave it to the German language to always sound worse that it needs to. Sadly, the train has filled up , and some young french speaking woman and her iPod has joined me. Ah well, c'est la guerre or something. I'm facing the wrong way - and I was right, they just pull out. But we have stops in Thun and Spiez, so maybe we will turn around again by the time we are zooming along the Thunerzee.

After we leave Bern, I'm struck by how much prettier the countryside is along this long distance rail line as opposed to the local line I took in. The absence of graffiti alone is breathtaking.

I think I'm the only one riding today with just a regular ticket.

In Thun (back to an excess of graffiti) I switch seats - I think we are going to keep going the same direction, so I'm hopeful I'll be facing the right way for the view side of the train. Ha, I'm right! At last I get to look at the lake without interruption. And let me assure you, the view is fantastic. Makes me want to retire to one of the little towns that dot the shore. I'm always brought up short by the question, how bad are the winters?

There ends the tale of the adventure as recorded that day on the back of the National/Alamo map of Switzerland. I would make it all the way to Interlaken with difficulty, walk back to the hotel wondering how I was going to meet up with the family, and then wondering how I was going to get into the room without a key, only to find them lounging about reading and watching TV in the room. They were shocked I was back so fast. So much for my big adventure.

We spent the rest of the day just hanging out in the hotel room or lounging about in town. If you can't do nothing on vacation, when can you do it?

Who Wants To Be A Politician

Commenting on the latest media gotcha of a politician, my wife asked why would anyone go into politics these days. Why indeed.

Togo with a Chemistry Set

Stripped of the grandiose claims by Kim’s minions, the objective scientific evidence for a nuclear explosion is sketchy. The explosive yield, according to military analysts, was something less than a kiloton. A plutonium device such as that first used by the US in 1945 produces a yield in the range of 20 kilotons. Some warheads in the US nuclear arsenal now can deliver an impact about 1,000 times that of Hiroshima. Remember too that in July, the Koreans launched an "intercontinental" ballistic missile that fell into the sea about a minute into its flight and you have a sense of the truly exiguous scale of the country’s capabilities. If the Soviet Union was memorably nicknamed Upper Volta with Rockets, it’s probably fair to think of North Korea as Togo with a Chemistry Set. So why worry? Here’s why. Unlike all previous nuclear nativities, North Korea’s efforts this week have truly propelled the world into a new and much more dangerous age. There’s no good strategic reason for Pyongyang even to claim to have a nuclear weapon, as China, Israel, Pakistan and India had.

It will be the first nuclear power to be headed by a crazed monomaniac who boasts of his commercial interest in shipping nuclear weapons to terrorist groups. The sheer unpredictability of North Korea terrifies everyone in its neighbourhood in a way that none of those other countries ever did. Its actions this week will almost certainly escalate into a nuclear arms race.

• truly exiguous scale of the country’s capabilities: I had to look tihs one up, exiguous means "scant, meagre."
• Upper Volta With Rockets: according to Wikipedia, the phrase "Upper Volta With Rockets" was used to describe the Soviet Union (in quotes, but with no attribution) in a survey on the Soviet economy in The Economist on April 9, 1988. The Economist on-line archive only goes back to 1997 so until I can figure out how to grep dead trees I will take their word for it.
• Togo With a Chemistry Set Togo is south of Burkina Faso (the modern name for Upper Volta)
• nuclear nativities is currently a GoogleWhack (I guess until this post makes it into the cache). Another great turn of phrase in an insightful article.

A Miscellainy of Sites

Are you a fan of Fantasy & Science Fiction? Me too. You should check out the Great Science Fiction and Fantasy Works site.

My father's family was big into railroads, so here is the Central Pacific Railroad Photographic History Museum. The Central Pacific was the western part of the transcontinental railroad.

I admit it, I like castles. Guess what, there is a Castle of the Day site.

I'm proud to be from Missouri. So you should visit Jo Schaper's Missouri World.

Interested in Christian charity? How about Compassion International, or World Vision, or you could try The Assyrian Christians, and let's not forget The Salvation Army. Those are just a few.

Interlaken Day 2 - One Extreme to Another

Our day got off to a bad start. We couldn't find our train tickets for the ride from Geneva to Venice. We had to do laundry. This is not why we went half-way around the world to go on vacation.

So the funWife and I wheeled a suitcase down the road, over a couple of bridges, and into the laundrimat about 10 minutes from our hotel. We tried to puzzle out the workings of the washers with the help of a handwritten sign. Apparently the Swiss are very concerned about the exact temperature of the wash and rinse water - no hot, warm or cold for them - so they have the exact temperatures thru the various cycles, and we had to convert from Celcius Farenheit in our head, but we couldn't translate the German into English for what the cycles were. Where to put the detergent was not obvious, so we picked a likely looking cavity. Not entirely satisfied we knew what we were doing, we put our money in and made our selections on the LCD touch screens (the town is old and quaint, but washers are ulta-modern). Then we sat and read our books while our clothes got clean and dry followed by the trundle back to the hotel to put away our laundry. They didn't stink afterward so we must have put the detergent in the right spot and gotten just the right temperatures after all. Still, not what you want to do on vacation.

Then it was on to the next problem. A nice stroll to the train station to see what we could do about the missing tickets was followed by the dashing of our hopes. No tickets, no ride, no refund. Just that simple. OK, now that we can kiss that money goodbye, what should we do? We've got to get to Venice on a certain day since we've paid for a hotel there already and we don't want to keep spending money twice. By now it's lunch time, so after a quick bit to eat -- hamburgers at a kabob place -- we decide to go back to vacation while we mull our options.

Since we were getting a late start having frittered half the day away on worry and cleanliness, we decided not to head up into the mountains and instead do some castle sightseeing around lake Thun. So we hopped into the car and headed off to Spiez which I remembered visiting the last time we were in Switzerland. Oddly enough, the schloss was right where we left it, and looked pretty much the same. I also remembered not to get off on the first Spiez exit, which made finding the schloss much easier and faster.

THE ENTRANCE TO SCHLOSS SPIEZ, AND WHAT A GRAND ONE IT IS

YOU NEED A CASTLE FOR THIS DOORWAY TO NOT BE TOO MUCH

HOW MANY MAN YEARS WERE SPENT ON THE DECORATION?

I found the schloss to be both beautiful and fascinating. I could visit castles every day of my life and not get bored. The keep, or large tower, dates to the 10th century, and is quite a rustic pile of stone filled with ladders that stretch seemingly to heaven. Yes, we climbed all the way to the top, and I have to admit that once we were up there it didn't seem nearly as high as when we were climbing up.

The nicer parts of the castle are of a more recent 16th century or even earlier vintage, and for a little castle in the hinterlands simply amazing. The detailed decoration, from the massive wooden door frames to the elaborate ceilings and, heck, I don't even know what you call most of it, is just beautiful. Once again it was clear that it was good to be the baron. To think what was originally designed only for refuge in times of war would become such an object of art. I would have had more interior pictures but my batteries died and my son had lost one of the spares when we were strolling around the grounds.

MY DAUGHTER WITH HER NEW MOVIE STAR SUNGLASSES AND A BEAUTIFUL BACKDROP

The grounds are quite nice and look to get some use from the locals -- at least I think it was locals sitting on the park benches overlooking the lake and reading books, talking, or just relaxing. There is an old church on the grounds that appears to be older than dirt, and another building with an overgrown garden whose purpose I can't even guess at. We weren't even sure we weren't trespassing on somebody else's property when we were walking around the garden. There is also an art gallery in an unattached part of the castle that was showing some still living artist's work who couldn't hold a candle to any of the large number of nameless artisans who beautified the castle over the centuries. If you are ever in Spiez, make sure you drop in.

HARD TO BELIEVE, BUT THIS IS A TYPICAL VIEW IN SWITZERLAND

The setting of the schloss is also quite beautiful, on a piece of land that juts out into lake Thun, surrounded by mountains. In that part of switzerland, you can't swing a dead cat without hitting awesome scenery. The blue lakes, the tall mountains, the vivid green grass - you just feel like you're in a postcard.

Not content with one castle, we motored on down lake Thun to the city of Thun to see the castle there. A note on pronunciation - Thun is pronounced just like tune, and Spiez it pronounced just like, um, kind of like spits, only you have to get the phlegm into it, so more like shpeetz. Please don't ask me why they are pronounced that way, I only know because that's how the recorded voice on the train pronounced them. Now back to your regularly scheduled narrative. We wound up taking a lake front road into Thun, which meant we got a closer view of the lake, but also meant we made a lot more stops along the way. We followed the road signs directing us to the schloss, but it wasn't the schloss we were looking for. It was schloss Hunegg. I would have like to have found schloss Oberhofen, since I have fond memories of it from our earlier trip, but no such luck. So then I hit on the plan of following the signs to go the the City Center, also known as Zentrum.

Everything was going fine except the traffic. Apparently there was only one road that went anywhere because everyone was on it with me. Traffic eased up though when I took the road that was marked as leading to the schloss. At last, almost there. Except it became clear that I was heading back to schloss Hunegg, not schloss Thun. Aaarggh, return to gridlock. And then, on a hill top in the distance, I could see it -- schloss Thun. It rises up over the buildings like a giant white fairy castle. But how to get there?

When we couldn't see the schloss anymore I figured that this time, we really were getting close. And I remembered from the last trip there was no dedicated parking for the schloss - we had parked in an underground garage for a medical building across the street then. So when I saw the sign Frei Parking, I figured we were close enough. Turns out that Frei parking shouldn't be confused with Free Parking, but while not exactly close, we were close enough. We only had to cross a couple of bridges over the river Aare, wind our way through the old city, climb about 400 steps or so, go past the church and we were there. OK, in the castle courtyard we climbed up a long ramp to pay to get in, and then we climbed up another couple of flights of stairs to actually enter the schloss. The main thing I remember about Thun is climbing - stairs, spiral staircases, ramps, even a few ladders. And I have to say, after all that the museum was somewhat disappointing. The great hall and its turrets were pretty neat, but I could have skipped the part where we went down into the castle and not missed it.

After the schloss, we strolled around the old town for a while, including a split level street, the likes of which I've never seen before. For the record, we took the high road down one side, and the low road down the other. Then it was back to the car, and back to Interlaken, with a stop along the way in some small town in an attempt to eat dinner. I say attempt, because they eat dinners later in Europe than America, what with them being urban sophisticates and all, and the restaurant in the hotel we stopped at wasn't open for another hour. Sometimes spur of the moment doesn't work, but that doesn't mean you stop trying it.

Mad Dogs And Englishmen

Just to prove I don't have sex on the brain, here's another story about pointless science or technology and this time it has nothing to do with sex (unless you believe in the Watson Conjecture). It's all about the UV index, and how we so called Homo Sapiens Sapiens, which literally means 'man wise wise' are too stupid to figure out how bad we're going to get sunburned without some weather person telling us how bad the UV is. I mean, it's not like I can open my eyes, gaze into the heavens, and arrive at my own estimate as to how much UV is making it through the clouds or clear skies as the case may be.

But now the European Space Agency, ESA, has gone high tech with it. Yep, they have developed "safe sunning" technology using satellites to determine and inform you of the UV index:

Thanks to an innovative service called HappySun, the UV Index can be delivered directly to mobile phones via SMS or can be accessed on the Internet. HappySun calculates the UV Index throughout the day by using ESA satellite data on radiation, ozone and cloud coverage. The service has just completed its two-year-long test phase and has received positive feedback from users.
"HappySun is a tool for the primary prevention of skin cancer," Franco Marsili, Director of the Dermatology Clinic at the Versilia Hospital in Italy, said. "The aim is to educate people about the intelligent ‘use’ of the sun."

We really should change our offical name to Homo Stupidus Stupidus.

New Meaning To Dress For Success

After reading this story about how researchers investigated how women dressed differently during their menstrual cycle and discovered, I kid you not:

A new study shows that young women in relationships may dress a bit more enticingly as they reach the ovulation phase of their monthly fertility cycle — the time when they are most fertile.

First, who thinks up these studies - nerdy men who want to meet college women? This really addresses a burning question about human behavoir.

Secondly, I'm not surprised that women would dress "more enticingly" and that's because women are a lot hornier as ovulation approaches. I'm wondering when that bit of research gets done.

Bonus tip: Men are always horny, except when sporting events are on TV.

A Jug Of Wine, And Thou

You can get a grant for a study like this?

Studies to date looking at the association between alcohol consumption and risky sex, however, have largely used potentially biased clinic-based samples or alcohol venue-based sampling strategies [2,4,10,13,16,17]. In addition, risk factors for heavy alcohol use itself with regard to sexual behavior have not yet been adequately characterized. Finally, there are few data on whether the relationship between alcohol and risky sex is the same for men and women, and on the interplay between alcohol, intergenerational relations, and sex exchange. We therefore set out to assess the following in a large, population-based sample covering rural, urban, and semi-urban areas in Botswana: (a) the prevalence and correlates of heavy alcohol consumption; and (b) gender-specific relationships between heavy alcohol use (as a primary independent variable) and a number of HIV transmission risk outcomes, including having unprotected sex with a nonmonogamous partner, having multiple partners, and paying for or selling sex in exchange for money or resources.

One On One With Kim Jong-Il

Yes, this is going around so you can find it all over, and yes, it really is unfair to Madeleine Albright, but after She Who Must Be Obeyed opened her mouth, I couldn't resist.

A less funny, more traditional rebuttal was provided by Sen. John McCain. McQ delivers a fisking. Personally, I can't fault either administration too much because North Korea under Kim Jong-il was simply going to try and develop nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them no matter what anyone said. It was worth giving talk a chance, but once it becomes clear that's a waste of time, why continue? Now we need to talk to the North Korea's neighbors about what we are going to do, not talk to Kim.

And another thing, why is it the same people who criticize President Bush for acting unilaterally, or for the US acting like a bully, demand that the talks with North Korea only be with the United States? It's just more dead horse beating.K

Hewlett Packard, We Hardly Know You Anymore

I have to admit I have a soft spot in my heart for Hewlett Packard. Perhaps it's because when I was a physics undergrad I used the original signal generators sold to Stanford University in my first lab (and yes, even then they belonged in a museum). When I was graduating, they were known as a quality employer with a special culture. So I have always associated the company with the best engineering values. It seems that all things change, and sadly H-P has changed too. The Carly Fiorina fiasco has now been followed by Patricia Dunn debacle. No, I don't think this has anything to do with the ability of a woman to run a great engineering company. I think it happens to do more with who runs large companies these days. Not just cream floats to the top.

The Return Of Sea Buckthorn

I just couldn't resist the title: Ghengis Khan Wonder Berry Could Conquer Heart Disease. OK, mix one old folk remedy with modern technology and voila: a headline I can't resist. Hope it works, but perhaps we should just eat the berries, drink the wine, and spend more time getting excercise in the great outdoors.

Nah, just give me the extract so I can sit on the couch and watch sports.

News You Hope Is True

File under News You Hope Is True: Chocolate Chip cookies that lower cholesterol. My mother, who still believes something has to taste awful for it to be good for you (ahh, the joys of cod liver oil) would not approve. Find out all about them at the Right Direction Cookies website.

Lasers And Chlorine Dioxide

You want to eat healthy, which means eating your vegetables, but you're scared because of outbreaks of food pathogens like E. Coli and Listeria. You've read that washing it, even by the supplier, isn't always effective. And when you find out that growers in the Salinas Valley, where most of the country's produce is grown, use tertiary treated sewage effluent for irregation, you really don't want to eat your vegetables.

But Purdue has your back. Researchers at the Purdue University have devised a one-two punch to knock out food pathogens. First, they have a laser system to detect the pathogens, and then they kill them with Chlorine Dioxide gas.

"If the product is safe, but nobody will eat it, that's not what we want," Linton said."We are always thinking in terms of, "Will this work for industry?' In this case, I believe the answer is yes. I would like to see this technology used regularly by industry in a couple years from now."

Both technologies have the potential to help prevent food-borne illness, Linton said, but he also noted that following proper agricultural practices is as important, if not more important, for food safety.

Since E. coli, or Escherichia coli, is found in the intestines of warm-blooded animals, it does not naturally contaminate most produce. Therefore, following more stringent sanitary policies, as well as practicing better manure and water management, can go a long way to help prevent future outbreaks, Linton said.

The New Phonebooks are Here!

The Nobel prize winners have been in the news lately, and so here is a complete listing:

ORNITHOLOGY: Ivan R. Schwab, of the University of California Davis, and the late Philip R.A. May of the University of California Los Angeles, for exploring and explaining why woodpeckers don't get headaches.

NUTRITION: Wasmia Al-Houty of Kuwait University and Faten Al-Mussalam of the Kuwait Environment Public Authority, for showing that dung beetles are finicky eaters.

PEACE: Howard Stapleton of Merthyr Tydfil, Wales, for inventing an electromechanical teenager repellant -- a device that makes annoying noise designed to be audible to teenagers but not to adults; and for later using that same technology to make telephone ringtones that are audible to teenagers but not to their teachers.

ACOUSTICS: D. Lynn Halpern (of Harvard Vanguard Medical Associates, and Brandeis University, and Northwestern University), Randolph Blake (of Vanderbilt University and Northwestern University) and James Hillenbrand (of Western Michigan University and Northwestern University) for conducting experiments to learn why people dislike the sound of fingernails scraping on a blackboard.

MATHEMATICS: Nic Svenson and Piers Barnes of the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Research Organization, for calculating the number of photographs you must take to (almost) ensure that nobody in a group photo will have their eyes closed

LITERATURE: Daniel Oppenheimer of Princeton University for his report "Consequences of Erudite Vernacular Utilized Irrespective of Necessity: Problems with Using Long Words Needlessly."

MEDICINE: Francis M. Fesmire of the University of Tennessee College of Medicine, for his medical case report "Termination of Intractable Hiccups with Digital Rectal Massage"; and Majed Odeh, Harry Bassan, and Arie Oliven of Bnai Zion Medical Center, Haifa, Israel, for their subsequent medical case report also titled "Termination of Intractable Hiccups with Digital Rectal Massage."

PHYSICS: Basile Audoly and Sebastien Neukirch of the Université Pierre et Marie Curie, in Paris, for their insights into why, when you bend dry spaghetti, it often breaks into more than two pieces.

CHEMISTRY: Antonio Mulet, José Javier Benedito and José Bon of the University of Valencia, Spain, and Carmen Rosselló of the University of Illes Balears, in Palma de Mallorca, Spain, for their study "Ultrasonic Velocity in Cheddar Cheese as Affected by Temperature."

BIOLOGY: Bart Knols (of Wageningen Agricultural University, in Wageningen, the Netherlands; and of the National Institute for Medical Research, in Ifakara Centre, Tanzania, and of the International Atomic Energy Agency, in Vienna Austria) and Ruurd de Jong (of Wageningen Agricultural University and of Santa Maria degli Angeli, Italy) for showing that the female malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae is attracted equally to the smell of limburger cheese and to the smell of human feet.

That would be the Ig Nobel prizes, that is. They are awarded to those who first make people laugh, then make them think. Something we strive mightily for here at funMurphys, but without the coveted award.

Some winners got into the spirit, as this press release shows.

LSD and Alcoholism

You can't make this stuff up. A history of medicine professor at the University of Alberta, Erika Dyck, has rediscovered studies from '60s Canada that show LSD can be an effective treatment of alcholism.

According to one study conducted in 1962, 65 per cent of the alcoholics in the experiment stopped drinking for at least a year-and-a-half (the duration of the study) after taking one dose of LSD. The controlled trial also concluded that less than 25 per cent of alcoholics quit drinking for the same period after receiving group therapy, and less than 12 per cent quit in response to traditional psychotherapy techniques commonly used at that time.

Published in the Quarterly Journal for Studies on Alcohol, the 1962 study was received with much skepticism. One research group in Toronto tried to replicate the results of the study, but wanted to observe the effect of LSD on the patients in isolation, so they blindfolded or tied up the patients before giving them the drug. Under such circumstances, the Toronto researchers determined LSD was not effective in treating alcoholism.

The Saskatchewan group argued that the drug needed to be provided in a nurturing environment to be effective. However, the Toronto researchers held more credibility than the Saskatchewan researchers--who were led by a controversial, British psychiatrist, Dr. Humphry Osmond--and the Saskatchewan group's research was essentially buried.

Wikipedia has more about Dr. Humphry Osmond, the man who coined the term "psychedelic" and who's middle name was "Fortescue", including this bit about the study in question:

Osmond is also known for one study in the late 1950s in which he attempted to cure alcoholics with acute LSD treatment, resulting in a claimed 50% success rate. He also treated Alcoholics Anonymous co-founder Bill W. with LSD with positive results. There exists however an alternate version of the events that is told by psychiatrist Abram Hoffer, MD. Osmond and Hoffer not only worked with LSD but also with niacin, which is now called vitamin B3. It is Bill W. himself who made this term popular, after he realized, thanks to the two researchers, the antipsychotic potential of this vitamin when given in supraphysiologic doses. B3 became known as a treatment for alcoholism, as well as for LSD-induced and schizophrenic psychosis Vitamin B-3: Niacin and Its Amide by A. Hoffer, M.D., Ph.D.. The underlying adrenochrome and kryptopyrrole (mauve factor) hypotheses were met with stiff, unsubstantiated opposition. The B3 protocol for alcoholism, despite encouraging results, fell into oblivion amongst the Alcoholics Anonymous organization, which gradually became a faith-based organisation reflecting the orientations of the other AA co-founder.

Representatives Foley, Hastert, and Shimkus

I'm just glad that Mark Foley wasn't a Boy Scout Leader. Everything else about the sordid situation is just bad. And I have to agree with Dick Durban, someone I disagree with on about everything else, and that is:

Durbin also said the House Page Board should be abolished. Durbin said there are no senators involved in overseeing the Senate page program, and instead it is run by nonpartisan staff.

"The Page Board in the House should go," Durbin said. "It is clearly too political."

Hastert and Shimkus can stay, but the page board has to go.

Full Disclosure: My nephew was an intern with Rep. Shimkus several years ago -- and yes, his respect for Shimkus does color my thinking on this one.

Natural Frankenfoods

Where do you stand on genetically engineered crops? Personally, I'm all in favor and don't see a whole lot of difference between seed companies selecting for traits and a scientist taking a short cut and inserting the actual gene(s) they want, even when the gene comes from a completely different organism. But not everyone sees it that way, and they do raise some valid points. Certainly not all engineering is equal, but what about the most basic complaint -- that such engineering is not natural? Well, research into the past genetic history shows that such staple crops as rice and corn (maize for all you britishers out there) have undergone massive genetic alteration over time:

"Our findings elucidate an active evolutionary process in which nature inserts genes much like modern biotechnologists do. Now we must reassess the allegations that biotechnologists perform 'unnatural acts,' thereby creating 'Frankenfoods,'" said Professor Joachim Messing, project leader and director of the Waksman Institute of Microbiology at Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey.

By comparing corresponding segments of two maize (corn) chromosomes with each other, and then to a corresponding segment of rice, project scientists reconstructed a genetic history replete with "reconfiguration and reshuffling, reminiscent of working with Lego blocks," Messing said.

Public awareness groups have argued that genetic engineering of crops deviates from "natural processes" when biotechnologists insert genes at seemingly random places, altering the normal order of genes in the genome. The view of genes being fixed in their position in the genome is largely based on studies in animal genomes. In contrast to those studies, however, the authors show that plant genomes evolved from a far more dynamic structure than previously believed.

Well, I think that answers the basic objection; all the rest are really ones of process and can dealt with by reasonable people -- and should be.

Overflowing With Good Health

In honor of Tom McMahon and his comment about healthy gals on Telemundo and Univision, I give you Iris Chacon, the healthiest gal of them all.

Giant Anti-Sucking Sound

I just couldn't resist the title of this article: World’s biggest whoopee cushion helps kids understand the science of sound. Who says science can't be fun? Not Professor Trevor Cox, that's for sure:

Trevor Cox, Professor of Acoustic Engineering at Salford University, will deliver this Royal Institution Science for Schools lecture. It is the biggest live event ever to be organised by the Royal Institution of Great Britain and their first-ever collaboration with the Royal Albert Hall. The Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) funded the research that forms the basis of the lecture and helped to fund the development of the show.

Audience participation will feature strongly throughout the event. Volunteers will be encouraged to sit on a specially made 2 metre-diameter whoopee cushion – the largest in the world – to demonstrate exactly how wind instruments work. The physics involved when whoopee cushions make a noise is the same as blowing through the mouthpiece of a saxophone, for instance (although the sound produced is quite different!). Trevor’s whoopee cushion will also be assessed at the event for a place in the Guinness World Records.

Dobson, Seipp, and HPV Vaccination

Cathy Seipp is a smart person, so why does she her analysis of the response to an HPV vaccine stumble so badly?

First off, she claims that certain religious fanatics are attacking the new vaccine for HPV:

One of the first things I had my 17-year-old daughter do when she began college this fall was make an appointment to get the new anti-HPV (for “Human Papillomavirus”) vaccine at the university’s student health center. HPV is the sexually transmitted virus that can cause cervical cancer, and the new vaccine (which in my view should only be celebrated, as should all medical progress) has been attacked by religious fanatics almost as soon as it was introduced. ‘Why, this will only encourage young girls to have sex!’ Or so that kind of thinking goes — if you can even call it “thinking.”

OK, what is Focus on the Family's position? Oddly enough, they have a .pdf position statement on their web site:

Recognizing the worldwide detriment to individuals and families resulting from HPV, Focus on the Family supports and encourages the development of safe, effective and ethical vaccines against HPV, as well as other viruses. The use of these vaccines may prevent many cases of cervical cancer, thus saving the lives of millions of women across the globe. Therefore, Focus on the Family supports widespread (universal) availability of HPV vaccines but opposes mandatory HPV vaccinations for entry to public school. The decision of whether to vaccinate a minor against this or other sexually transmitted infections should remain with the child’s parent or guardian. As in all areas of sexual health and education, Focus on the Family upholds parents’ right to be the primary decision maker and educator for their children. The use of these vaccines should involve informed consent for parents as well as education for both parents and youth regarding the potential benefits and risks of the vaccine. In making this decision, parents should consider the following:
• No vaccine is 100% effective against disease;
• There are more than one hundred sub-types of HPV and the current vaccines being tested are effective against, at most, four of these;
• The sub-types of the virus that these vaccines protect against are the cause of most but not all cases of cervical cancer;
• The possibility of HPV infection resulting from sexual assault, including date rape;
• The possibility that young persons may marry someone previously exposed to and still carrying the virus;
• The HPV vaccines do not protect against other STIs or prevent pregnancy;
• The HPV vaccines do not, in any circumstance, negate or substitute the best health message of sexual abstinence until marriage and sexual faithfulness after marriage.

Hmm, how about Family Research Council:

The Family Research Council welcomes the news that vaccines are in development for preventing infection with certain strains of the human papillomavirus (HPV). We also welcome the reports, like those we've heard this morning, of promising clinical trials for such a vaccine. Forms of primary prevention and medical advances in this area hold potential for helping to protect the health of millions of Americans and helping to preserve the lives of thousands of American women who currently die of cervical cancer each year as a result of HPV infection. Media reports suggesting that the Family Research Council opposes all development or distribution of such vaccines are false.

...

We will also continue to take an interest in the activities of the pharmaceutical companies, the federal and state governments, and of the medical community, as vaccines for HPV are approved, recommendations for their use are developed, and their use is implemented. In particular, we encourage follow-up studies to determine whether use of the vaccine has any impact on sexual behavior and its correlates, such as rates of other sexually transmitted diseases or rates of pregnancy.

We are particularly concerned with insuring that medically accurate information regarding the benefits and limitations of an HPV vaccine is distributed to public health officials, physicians, patients, and the parents of minor patients. It is especially important for those parties to understand that such a vaccine:

* will not prevent transmission of HIV or other sexually transmitted diseases, of which there are many;

* will not prevent infection with other strains of HPV, of which there are also many;

* will not prevent infection with all of the strains of HPV that cause cervical cancer;

* and lastly, will not eliminate the need for regular screening.

We recognize that the most current immunological studies suggest that these vaccines would be most effective in pre-adolescents. Our primary concern is with the message that would be delivered to nine- to twelve-year-olds with the administration of the vaccines. Care must be taken not to communicate that such an intervention makes all sex "safe." We strongly encourage the health care community to clearly communicate the medically accurate fact that only abstaining from sexual contact with infected individuals can fully protect someone from the wide range of sexually transmitted diseases.

However, we also recognize that HPV infection can result from sexual abuse or assault, and that a person may marry someone still carrying the virus. These provide strong reasons why even someone practicing abstinence and fidelity may benefit from HPV vaccines.

Because parents have an inherent right to be the primary educator and decision maker regarding their children's health, we would oppose any measures to legally require vaccination or to coerce parents into authorizing it. Because the cancer-causing strains of HPV are not transmitted through casual contact, there is no justification for any vaccination mandate as a condition of public school attendance. However, we do support the widespread distribution and use of vaccines against HPV.

Vaccination at the beginning of adolescence may provide a unique opportunity for both health care providers and parents to discuss with young people the full range of issues related to sexual health. We would encourage this committee to recommend that policy-making bodies, such as the American Academy of Pediatrics, should develop and formalize clinical counseling interventions directed toward sexual risk elimination strategies for pre-adolescents. Such strategies could be incorporated into anticipatory guidance protocols. Such a strategy would also mirror the risk elimination messages presented to adolescents regarding tobacco, alcohol, and drug usage, and youth violence prevention. This risk elimination message is the best form of primary prevention youth can receive.

Both health care providers and parents should reinforce the fact that limiting sexual activity to the context of one faithful and monogamous long-term relationship is the single most effective method of preventing all sexually transmitted diseases, unplanned pregnancies, and the whole range of negative psychological and social consequences that can result from sexual activity outside marriage.

OK, how about Jerry Falwell? Silent on the issue.

National Abstinence Clearinghouse? OK, I admit I'm not a member and don't want to join so I can't actually see what's in their resource library, but here are some titles:

07.05.2006 More on HPV and Condoms…
06.29.2006 HPV Vaccine: How Much Will it Cost?
06.21.2006 HPV Vaccine: Progress, But the Battle’s Not Over Against HPV
05.24.2006 HPV Vaccine Clears FDA Hurdle
04.26.2006 Data from Eight Collected Studies Shows Enormous Risk of Cervical Cancer from HPV
04.07.2006 New Way to Encourage Someone to Test for STD
04.05.2006 Teens and STDs: A New Message for a Healthy Millennium

Now perhaps these organizations have all moderated their opposition after the FDA approved it and I'm (admittedly) late to the party. But that isn't what is claimed. Now to be sure there may be some people out there actually flat out opposed to the HPV vaccine who are Christians, but I'm sure not seeing some movement by any influential organization.

But it doesn't end there. Ms. Seipp continues:

This naturally brought out all the true believers in hordes -- many of whom insisted that my comparison of vaccines that prevent disease to locked doors that prevent burglars is wrong, wrong, wrong. I don't see why. Some of these people insist the analogy is flawed because airbags and seatbelts encourage people to drive more recklessly, not less.

But while it's true there are some studies that indicate improved safety features in cars do make some people feel inoculated against road hazards and so more likely to speed, what about people like me? I never speed and haven't had a traffic ticket in 26 years -- pretty much what you'd expect from a typical Volvo-driving fuddy-duddy...whose seatbelts always fastened, and whose car has airbags.

It's true my analogy about burglars and disease may be imperfect, but it's nevertheless essentially true. One person, for instance, said I should have used the example of theft insurance instead of locked doors. But I don't see why. Vaccinating against disease and locking your doors against burglars both recognize that we live in a world where bad things can happen even if we don't deserve them. Recognizing that fact no more encourages promiscuity than locked doors encourages burglary; both are simply precautions.

Now let's take up the question of whether or not reducing the risk associated with a behavior increases the incidence of said behavior. That is the what is claimed again by Ms. Seipp as the religious fanatic's objection to this vaccine.

So her analogy is that since locking your doors at night doesn't encourage burglars, making sex less risky won't encourage sex. There are two problems that make her analogy a non-sequitor. The original is about how your ability to lower the risk of your behavior to yourself encourages you to do more of that behavior. The analogy is about how your ability to (1) increase the risk of (2) someone else's behavior doesn't encourage them. Gee, when you get to stand the other person's points on their heads, you can easily refute them.

Now a reader tries to rescue her "One person, for instance, said I should have used the example of theft insurance instead of locked doors. But I don't see why." Here's why: the analogy becomes just because you have theft insurance [lower the risk] you don't stop locking your doors at night [risky behavior]. The reason you should use it is that it actually conforms to the logic of the objection. I have to admit I don't have data, but I'd say there are more people who would take less precautions with their property knowing they would be paid for a loss than there are who would take more.

But I don' have to think too hard about this, because we already have data about this very effect, and Ms. Seipp cites it - anti-lock brakes and airbags have made people feel safer, so we have engaged in riskier driving behavior to the point we are no safer, and even less safe than before. So we have valid evidence that low and behold, if you lower the risk of a certain behavior, people will do more of it.

And how does Ms. Seipp respond to actual real hard data? Anecdote. Hey I own a safe car and I don't engage in risky behavior. OK, what does that have to do with the measurement of real behavior by real people? Yep, none.

As far as Ms. Seipp's analogy, how about we ask the question, if burglars were given a "get out of jail free" card that really worked, even if only once, would they commit more or less burglary? I don't have to think too hard about that one.

But one has to ask, so what? As far as I can tell, what Focus on the Family and Family Research Council are warning against is a false sense of security - that is they don't want the message to be that because of this vaccine, sex has been rendered safe and complication free. Kind of like, just because you lock the front door everynight, don't think you can't be burglarized.

A better response would be that given all of the factors that go into becoming sexually active, the risk of HPV is pretty far down the list and is just not very significant, and that the risk that young girls would misjudge and take this vaccine as a license for risk free sex could be overcome through the proper education -- which sound a lot like the positions take by those religious fanatics at FOTF and FRC.

So what did I learn from reading Ms. Seipp in this case? Nothing about so called religious fanatics. But I did learn that even smart, reliable people goof: they don't accurately represent other people's positions, they don't reason well, they dismiss data if it disagrees with their opinion, and in general can just go off half-cocked. And yes, I'm sure if you were a glutton for punishment and went through my archives you could find similar problems from time to time.