Newspapers Dying Before Our Very Eyes

Newspapers used to make economic sense. In the age of mass production of uniform product, they were an efficient ay to transmit timely information. Additional copies were cheap compared to the fixed costs associated with printing, so it made sense to include everything in order to appeal to the the widest readership possible, which spread the relatively large fixed costs over the widest possible subscribership. The inefficiency of having much, if not most, of the paper no of interest to a particular reader was made up by spreading the fixed costs over as many people as possible. The two big advertisers – department stores and classified – also wanted as large an audience as possible. In the age of mass communication the newspapers had advantage over competitors – first radio, then TV. The first is that reading is much faster than listening. Second, people can access the information in a newspaper on their terms – TV and radio require you to sit through the broadcast to hear what you are interest in. So in the one size fits all world of mass communications newspapers ruled.

The economy of scale also drove to monopoly. Only a few of the largest cities kept more than 1 mass circulation daily newspaper. When I was a kid the St. Louis Post Dispatch became the St. Louis’s only daily newspaper when the Globe Democrat owners decided it would be more profitable to run the printing presses fo the Post than it was to print and distribute the Globe. Two attempts were made later to create a second newspaper: first a revival of the Globe, and then the brand new Sun. Both were failures. With the monopolies came a drop off in quality. The Post was never a better paper in my lifetime than when it was tying to fend off The Sun. Quality all across new media has fallen as a result. But poor quality isn’t the biggest problem facing newspapers.

The problem for newspapers is that with the advent of the internet, newspapers are no longer an efficient way to distribute information. Instead of pushing out the same universal product to every customer, consumers can pull only what they want when they want it via the internet. The problem for newspapers is that everything they know about the newspaper business, as opposed to the news gathering business, hurts them in this new model. The internal power structure is set up all wrong for the new model. The culture of the newspaper is geared to putting out the product every 24 hours and providing as little product support as possible once the newspaper is in your hands. Didn’t get your copy – they are only too happy to get a copy in your hands as fast as possible. Provide corrections, clarifications, or follow up once you have it in your hands – not so much. So the typical newspaper website is just like the newspaper, although they have been adding more interactivity and faster updates with time.

Now newspaper advertising is drying up, never to come back. What they are going through is not a downturn but the end of the mass circulation metropolitan daily. The classified ads are going to Craigslist (once you’ve used Craigslist, you’ll never buy another newspaper classified ad) or Monster for jobs. All that’s left are car ads and the car companies are having their problems, just like the department stores. Every advertiser has to be pondering the high cost of untargeted advertising – the same revolution in universal push versus targeted pull.

Technology created newspapers; technology is what is killing them.

Congratulations, President Obama

You won the election, now what?

PS: My condolences on the loss of your grandmother.

You Go, Grandma

So I’m perusing the post election results at Instapundit when I come across his link to a NYT story – kids are safest under grandparents care – and I have to take a look. The key:

The study is important because grandparents are a growing source of child care for working and single parents. Some health researchers speculated that grandparents may be out of touch with modern safety practices, and as a result, they worried that children being cared for by grandparents might be at higher risk for injury.

But the opposite appears to be true. Researchers from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health analyzed caregiving and injury data from the National Evaluation of the Healthy Steps for Young Children Program. The program includes information about 5,500 newborns in 15 United States cities during 1996 and 1997, with follow-up over the next three years.

The analysis showed that having grandparents as caregivers cut the risk of childhood injury by about half. Compared to organized day care, care by other relatives, or even care by a mother who doesn’t work outside the home, children who were cared for by a grandmother were less likely to be injured.

When I read this, of course my first thought is “You go, Grandma”.

But I noticed how drably they wrote this. They would have willingly thrown grandma under the bus had the results been what I daresay they were hoping for, with a headline like “Killer Grandmothers” or “Grandparents – the hidden peril”, or even “Grandparents: We knew they lost their touch when they let the grandkids eat in the living room!”. And they buried a couple of other things, two. Like just how good are these “modern safety practices”, anyway. My generation rode bikes without helmets, rode in cars without seat belts, and those of us who survived into crabby middle age are just fine. And you have to go to the primary source to discover that single moms are a menace, OK, show a higher rate of injury.

How I Learned to Love Economics

I disliked economics in college. I agreed with the claim that the subject was dismal.

And then I started to read economics books and articles on my own, and I discovered a practical use for it.

I’m sure you’ve heard sometime in your life the statement “If it helps only one person (or the common variation if it saves only one life), it will have been worth it.” This is always said in an attempt to end all further debate on the subject and usually is offered as an argument to continue whatever “it” is – typically spending money on the speaker’s pet project. Once upon a time, I used to nod my head and give the matter no further thought.

Economics changed that.

Now when that line of argument is used, I respond with “No, you have to look at other courses of action (or ways of spending money) and choose an option or mix of options that helps (or saves) the most people. ” In other words, if you spend a million dollars to save just one life, but there are other ways to spend a million that save more than one life, then no, all things being equal, it wasn’t worth it, it was a mistake.

One word of warning – you’re not likely to change the person’s mind when you go this route. I’d leave off the mistake part if I were you, and just get to them to think about better ways. And don’t mention the economics angle – instead tell them about the Zen of chess and how the way to win is always make the best possible move. They might actually see it your way.

People want to get better at chess, or think about how they can apply game related insights to their lives. They don’t want anything to do with economics, which is forever telling them they have can’t have it all but must make difficult choices. You can’t win at economics, but you can win at chess, and that makes all the difference in persuading people.

Just to Clarify

I’m not anti-intellectual, I’m anti-academic.

For an academic, there isn’t a difference between academic and intellectual. For an intellectual, they differ.

I became an anti-academic in college, and I haven’t seen a reason to change yet.

Department of Odd Coincidences

I’m reading Instapundit when I come across this story about a black bear attacking a boy in the Smokey Mountains:

The incident began about 7:30 p.m. when the boy, Evan Pala of Boca Raton, Fla., was playing in a creek about 300 yards from the trailhead of Rainbow Falls Trail, which is near the Roaring Fork Motor Nature Trail, Miller said.

Wow – just last Thursday we (AKA the Murphy Family) parked at the Rainbow Falls trailhead and hiked up to Rainbow Falls. I did prep us by reading the blurb on the map on what to do if a bear attacks (don’t approach or run away, but if attacked fight back) although I think only I paid much attention. I have to admit after reading about the 2 bears per square mile density I was nervous with all the smellables we were taking on the hike, including lunch.

We didn’t see hide nor scat of bear on our hike (thankfully), although when we got back to the van someone had written “Go Patriots!” in the dust of the back window. This really weirded out the Murphy women since somebody figured out what school the funDaughter goes to with just a PS sticker and Missouri plates to go by.

Anyway, here’s a picture of the falls:

Rainbow Falls
RAINBOW FALLS

Our hearts go out to the Pala family and we hope and pray they make a full recovery.

Dark Watchmen Vs. The Architect of Fear

Is this the day? Is this the beginning of the end? There is no time to wonder. No time to ask why is it happening, why is it finally happening. There is time only for fear, for the piercing pain of panic. Do we pray? Or do we merely run now and pray later? Will there be a later? Or is this the day?

This is the opening narration for the original Outer Limits episode “The Architects of Fear” where a group of scientists fake an alien invasion in an attempt to forestall escalating international tensions and a potential nuclear holocaust. We took in the Dark Knight over the weekend and this quote could have opened the third act of the film where the Joker is threatening the Gotham City with widespread destruction.

The Dark Knight is a dark film about a city fighting a terrorist. it’s one of the grimmest movies I have seen in a while. It’s not as downbeat as “Seconds” but certainly the “Empire Strikes Back” may be the last mass market film to end on so low a note. It’s very well done but definitely a movie with adult themes.

Heath Ledger’s performance is chilling. His Joker reminded me of Lewis Black on a rant (who they should consider now that this will be Ledger’s last role). It becomes clear that the Joker is truly an agent of chaos, his real goal is for the citizens of Gotham City to lose their faith in orderly society (“the hidden conspiracy of goodwill”) and descend into anomie. I viewed It as a cautionary tale for any free society fighting terrorism.

“He who fights with monsters should look to it that he himself does not become a monster. And when you gaze long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you.”
Freidrich Nietzsche Aphorism 146

Batman is challenged to drop his own code of ethics and use whatever means necessary. But in spite of horrific provocation is able to follow his internal compass.

“Sed quis custodiet ipsos custodes?” Juvenal

Which is normally translated as “But who will guard the guardians?” and Alan Moore interpreted as “Who Watches the Watchmen?” (more on that in a moment). To locate the Joker Batman engages in a massive invasion of privacy, but does so in a way that he has no personal control over the information gathered or the mechanism he created, allowing it to be destroyed when it’s no longer needed. This is in the face of a villain who is killing any government official who tries to stand against him, and for good measure follows through on his threat to blow up a hospital.

Although I said it was a dark film about adult themes the boys both enjoyed it and we had a long discussion about civil liberty, and the difference between the police, the National Guard, and the Army. And the difference between the way that a free society fights criminals, affording them protection under the law, and enemy combatants who are committed to the destruction of a society.

“The mature man lives quietly, does good privately, takes responsibility for his actions, treats others with friendliness and courtesy, finds mischief boring and avoids it. Without the hidden conspiracy of goodwill, society would not endure an hour.”
Kenneth Rexroth in the “Introduction to Tolstoy’s The Kingdom of God Is Within You”

Ultimately, when confronted with the challenge to kill complete strangers or be killed themselves, Gotham’s citizens–even its criminals–refrain.

The previews included the new Watchmen movie, which looked outstanding. If you haven’t read the comic graphic novel, it’s an extremely dense and intricately plotted exploration justice, vigilantism, and what it means to be a hero. My personal preference would have been for a 12 episode miniseries, with each episode an hour to 90 minutes long to do Watchmen justice, but that’s probably harder to fund and monetize and it’s taken more than two decades to bring it to the screen as is. It will probably get redone in 30 years as a hypertext movie to do it justice.

Alan Moore was apparently not aware of the Outer Limits episode “Architects of Fear” when he wrote Watchmen, but became aware of it as he and Dave Gibbons were collaborating on it, inserting a reference to it in the last issue.

We watched the the “Architects of Fear” again tonight, and I was surprised and how scary it was and how poignant the concluding narration remains:

Scarecrows and magic and other fatal fears do not bring people closer together. There is no magic substitute for soft caring and hard work, for self-respect and mutual love. If we can learn this from the mistake these frightened men made, then their mistake will not have been merely grotesque, it would at least have been a lesson. A lesson, at last, to be learned.

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Somedays I Miss St. Louis

Or perhaps it’s just my childhood.

“If we hadn’t our bewitching autumn foliage, we should still have to credit the weather with one feature which compensates for all its bullying vagaries – the ice-storm: when a leafless tree is clothed with ice from the bottom to the top – ice that is as bright and clear as crystal; when every bough and twig is strung with ice-beads, frozen dew-drops, and the whole tree sparkles cold and white, like the Shah of Persia’s diamond plume. Then the wind waves the branches and the sun comes out and turns all those myriads of beads and drops to prisms that glow and burn and flash with all manner of colored fires, which change and change again with inconceivable rapidity from blue to red, from red to green, and green to gold-the tree becomes a spraying fountain, a very explosion of dazzling jewels; and it stands there the acme, the climax, the supremest possibility in art or nature, of bewildering, intoxicating, intolerable magnificence. One cannot make the words too strong.” Mark Twain

I miss the change of seasons, not just the alternation of hot and wet but four seasons. I miss ice storms and the power going out. Now of course I would be responsible. But as a boy it was my parents’ problem and changes in routine–no school!–were welcome.

“The true object of all human life is play. Life is a task garden, heaven is a playground.” G. K. Chesterton

I miss thunderstorms and lightning, the just right warmth of autumn winds, the way that snow changes the landscape, and the brisk cold of winter giving way to spring. But my blood has changed, so now whether I return in summer or winter I am completely uncomfortable. But it wasn’t always this way.

Potpouri for $100

When did ‘nuts’ become an unprintable and unspeakable word? Gen. Anthony McAuliffe used the word to great effect during the Battle of the Bulge and nobody bats an eye at it. Jesse Jackson uses the word and all those bastions of anti-censorship and forward thinking like the NYT all of a sudden can’t bring themselves to print the word. And if you haven’t seen the film – it’s great theatre as Jesse leans in and whispers to his co-panelist and even includes the hand gestures of sawing the coconuts off (apparently they take some effort to remove).

Mark Wadsorth on the difference between left and right wing dictatorships: the recovery from them. Via My buddy in hell, Tom McMahon.

What explains the difference in reaction to the deaths of Tim Russert and Tony Snow? Both were caring people at the top of their profession. Both were involved in politics as well as journalism. Yes, that was a hint.

So Democratic politicians assure me on the one hand it takes a minimum of 10 years to drill a hole in the ground and get oil out of it, and on the other keep bitching about what is taking so long in Iraq. Last time I checked, removing a dictator, and then fighting against a terrorist organization (al Qaida), 2 groups of militias (Sunni and Shia), and a country (Iran) while trying to rebuild a country and create a civil society in country that has never known one is several orders of mangitude harder than drilling a hole.

By the Waters of Babylon

Thanks to Netflix we worked our way through the first season of “Mad Men” last week. I heartily recommend the series: it’s well photographed and well acted and takes you back to the early 60’s. Watching adults drink and (drink and drink and) drive–without seatbelts no less–or children playing “spaceman” with the (these are not a toy!) clear plastic dry cleaning bags reminds you of how much has changed in the last four decades or so.

One episode, entitled “Babylon” ends with a cover of Don Mclean‘s Babylon (but get the original) with it’s moving lyrics from Psalm 137:

By the waters, the waters of Babylon.
We lay down and wept, and wept, for thee Zion.
We remember thee, remember thee, remember thee Zion.

YouTube has the segment here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4aAgvQelGI

As I was searching for more information on the song I came across Stephen Vincent Benet’s mesmerizing short story “By The Waters of Babylon” that details a young man’s journey to a ruined New York City, known to his people as “The Place of the Gods” (and the title of the story when originally published in the Saturday Evening Post in 1937). I had read it as a boy and was moved again re-reading this scene:

He was sitting in his chair, by the window, in a room I had not entered before and, for the first moment, I thought that he was alive. Then I saw the skin on the back of his hand–it was like dry leather. The room was shut, hot and dry–no doubt that had kept him as he was. At first I was afraid to approach him–then the fear left me. He was sitting looking out over the city–he was dressed in the clothes of the gods. His age was neither young nor old–I could not tell his age. But there was wisdom in his face and great sadness. You could see that he would have not run away. He had sat at his window, watching his city die–then he himself had died. But it is better to lose one’s life than one’s spirit–and you could see from the face that his spirit had not been lost. I knew, that, if I touched him, he would fall into dust–and yet, there was something unconquered in the face.

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