Posts Tagged Iraq

The Plural of Anecdote Isn’t Data

The Volokh Conspiracy seems to add another blogger every time I read them (I’d link to them if I knew how to pronounce the name (yeah, like they care)), but that only makes them better. But that’s not the point; the point is that they have an email from a Naval Reservist in Iraq that’s well worth reading.

” The tension is high all around here [in Baghdad], but not necessarily because of the protests or potshots being taken at the Army patrols. Everyone wants to succeed and is working 24/7 to do it, but it doesn’t always seem as the world understands the issue because of the limited view the press provides. There is a very talented team assembled, with not the greatest access to the usual resources (phones, computers, air conditioning, etc). They’re also going to need some good people to fill their shoes in a couple of months; i.e., the President of Michigan State needs to head back to school at summer’s end.”

I’m happy to hear of his positive experience, but as he notes, it’s hard to tell what’s going on because of the limited view I have. You read negative stuff, you read positive stuff, and you try to get an idea of how things are going, of what’s happening over there. And frankly, you just can’t tell. Nor is it clear that you can sum it up with a single adjective like well or poorly. It’s a big country, and it isn’t going to be homogenous. If you asked people in this country how things are going here, you’d get a wide diversity of opinion. Yet when it comes to foreign countries, we want a single response. How’s safety over there? We’ll, I’m sure there are locations over there I’d be much safer in than certain locations right here in river city, but there does seem to be a security problem. And at the height of the negative reports on looting (including the Baghdad museum) in Iraq, there was an incident in St. Louis where a school was cleaned to the bare walls — apparently the theives started loading up a truck Friday night, worked through the weekend, and didn’t stop until there was nothing left to take. It was ignored local news; the press was too obsessed with looting in Iraq to worry about looting in some poor neighborhood of St. Louis. 

But I think there is one clear fact — that as of right now, whatever the reality is, whatever may come, the bulk of the Iraqi people are better off without Saddam as their leader.

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Was It About Oil? Not According To Wolfowitz

Yes, I know that the Guardian is claiming that Paul Wolfowitz let the cat out of the bag, and in response to a question about the difference in handling of North Korea and Iraq, said it was all about oil:

“Asked why a nuclear power such as North Korea was being treated differently from Iraq, where hardly any weapons of mass destruction had been found, the deputy defence minister said: “Let’s look at it simply. The most important difference between North Korea and Iraq is that economically, we just had no choice in Iraq. The country swims on a sea of oil.”

The problem is, he didn’t say that. Sad to say, you can’t believe everything you read in the paper. Here’s the actual question and answer, from the DOD transcript:

“Q: What I meant is that essentially North Korea is being taken more seriously because it has become a nuclear power by its own admission, whether or not that’s true, and that the lesson that people will have is that in the case of Iraq it became imperative to confront Iraq militarily because it had banned weapons systems and posed a danger to the region. In the case of North Korea, which has nuclear weapons as well as other banned weapons of mass destruction, apparently it is imperative not to confront, to persuade and to essentially maintain a regime that is just as appalling as the Iraqi regime in place, for the sake of the stability of the region. To other countries of the world this is a very mixed message to be sending out.

Wolfowitz: The concern about implosion is not primarily at all a matter of the weapons that North Korea has, but a fear particularly by South Korea and also to some extent China of what the larger implications are for them of having 20 million people on their borders in a state of potential collapse and anarchy. It’s is also a question of whether, if one wants to persuade the regime to change, whether you have to find — and I think you do — some kind of outcome that is acceptable to them. But that outcome has to be acceptable to us, and it has to include meeting our non-proliferation goals.

Look, the primarily difference — to put it a little too simply — between North Korea and Iraq is that we had virtually no economic options with Iraq because the country floats on a sea of oil. In the case of North Korea, the country is teetering on the edge of economic collapse and that I believe is a major point of leverage whereas the military picture with North Korea is very different from that with Iraq. The problems in both cases have some similarities but the solutions have got to be tailored to the circumstances which are very different.”

I suppose something can be lost in translating from english into german and then back again, since the Guardian was relying on the reporting of a couple of German newspapers. Since I don’t read german, I have no idea if the fault lies with the german papers (Der Tagesspiegel and Die Welt), the Guardian, or somewhere in between.

So what Wolfowitz said was, to put it in soviet terms, in Iraq the correlation of military forces was heavily in our favor while the correlation of ecomonic forces wasn’t too good; thus, the military option was used. In North Korea, the opposite balance obtains, so we are pursuing the economic option over the military. Why this is so hard for some people to grasp is beyond me – it isn’t exactly rocket science.

UPDATE: The Guardian admits it was wrong:

“A report which was posted on our website on June 4 under the heading “Wolfowitz: Iraq war was about oil” misconstrued remarks made by the US deputy defence secretary, Paul Wolfowitz, making it appear that he had said that oil was the main reason for going to war in Iraq. He did not say that. He said, according to the department of defence website, “The … difference between North Korea and Iraq is that we had virtually no economic options with Iraq because the country floats on a sea of oil. In the case of North Korea, the country is teetering on the edge of economic collapse and that I believe is a major point of leverage whereas the military picture with North Korea is very different from that with Iraq.” The sense was clearly that the US had no economic options by means of which to achieve its objectives, not that the economic value of the oil motivated the war. The report appeared only on the website and has now been removed.”

Next question is, will all those sites that ran with this story come out and tell you that it has been retracted? I’m not holding my breath.

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War Status Week 3

I think we’ve reached the beginning of the end of the Iraq campaign. At this point, it sure looks to go down as another smashing US victory. Whatever lingering doubts I had were cleared up by the recent reports of a warehouse full of cardboard boxes with human remains and detailed records of how victims of Saddam were executed; the terrible details of torture in Iraqi prisons, and the revelation of a children’s prison. I know the end doesn’t justify the means, but after the fanatical attacks on coalition forces during the war, it seems to me this government would never have been removed by any means short of war, nor would anything but a worldwide united front have achieved disarmament — and I have my doubts that even that would have succeeded. 

Is Saddam dead? I don’t know. But last time we thought we got him, the regime continued to function, although in a strangely passive manner. This time, in less than 24 hours the regime seems to no longer exist — even the police and media minders have dropped from sight. If we did get him this time, it would provide a small amount of personal satisfaction as reportedly he was killed by four BLU-109 JDAM variants (I think that’s what they mean when they say bunker busting GBU-31’s, which can be either Mark 84s or BLU-109s with the JDAM kit) as I happened to have helped out on the aerodynamics on that particular variant.

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Do They Love Us or Hate Us?

Donald Sensing at One Hand Clapping points out that hating Saddam isn’t the same as loving America. The question of the moment isn’t whether the Iraqi’s love us or hate us (or fear us), the question is will they tolerate us and help us. And certainly no feeling will be universal; some will hate us and some will love us. All we need is most to work with us.

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War Assessment

The news media seems to think the war in Iraq is going badly. I can just see these guys write a post-mortem of the 1972 Miami Dolphins: Despite Coach Shula’s claims of a perfect season, we can report that opponents completed passes, gained yards, first downs, and even scored on the Dolphins while the Dolphin offense struggled at times, failing to put points on the board with every possession. As far as I can tell, the campaign against Iraq is going very well. Coalition ground forces have seemingly advanced at will, stopped only by the weather; what’s described as fierce opposition has managed to inflict few casualties and is best described as a nuisance. Some seem surprised that vehicles still need gas, guns still need bullets, and soldiers still need to sleep now and then. Despite fears before hand, the war has neither widened — no rising of the Arab street, no terrorist attacks, not even a tape from Osama — nor has Iraq used WMD yet. Yes, the coalition has made mistakes, mistakes that have cost lives, mistakes that will prolong the campaign, but then this too should not be surprising.

Part of the problem is that since neither we nor the media know what the plan is/was, we cannot accurately asses how we are doing relative to the plan. Some seem to think the plan was to drive to Baghdad and be welcomed as heros. Somehow, I doubt that was the plan. It looks to me that the plan was to get to Baghdad by fighting as little as possible in the south and have the decisive battle occur there. As an Iraqi in Nasiriya, scene of heavy fighting, said, “You want to overthrow Saddam Hussein’s regime? Go to Baghdad. What are you doing here?” 

So I think the coalition needs to press ahead to Baghdad. Waiting around for reinforcements and getting bogged down taking every town in the south are diversions. Strike the Republican Guard units while they are still outside Baghdad. Infiltrate the 101 into Baghdad before Iraqi units retreat into it. Keep the pressure on; keep the initiative, adjust to Saddam’s countermoves but don’t lose sight of the overall picture and objective. Knock his TV and radio broadcasts from the airwaves and replace them with our own. Attack every aspect of Saddam’s regime that you can while you advance to destroy him.

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Scuds Revealed

Apparently, Centcom isn’t naming the ballistic missiles fired into Kuwait, leading to confusion about whether they are Scuds are not. In response to a question asking if Iraq was launching Scuds, the briefer responded that they had fired 10 (OK, I don’t remember the exact number) ballistic missiles into Kuwait, some of which had travelled more than 150 km. He then moved on to the next question. It is left for the media to understand that 150 km represents the limit on allowable range for Iraqi ballistic missiles; IOW, it doesn’t matter what you call them, Iraq had and used missiles in violation of UN limits. I hope that clears it up.

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A Couple Of Know Nothings

Derek Low at Lagniappe has a pretty good description about the overall picture of the Iraq campaign: the signal to noise is pretty low, and nobody (that’s talking, anyway) has any idea of what’s going on. But that doesn’t stop him (or me) from checking the news all day.

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Liberation Theology, The Vatican, and Iraq

Jeff Jarvis over on Buzzmachine picks up a thread from a Spanish blog about liberation theology and the Vatican’s stance on the Iraq campaign. Seamus Murphy SJ argues that liberation theology would be in favor of the Iraq campaign. Food for thought.

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Media Coverage Of The War

I’ve been relying on the internet during the day and the cable news networks at night. I think having reporters embedded in the units has worked out great – in fact my biggest complaint about the coverage by the cable people is that they spend too much time with all their military retirees and not enough with their embedded reporters. I think context is important, but a little goes a long way. And if these guys really do know what’s going on, they sure as heck aren’t going to broadcast it where the Iraqi’s can pick it up. So its great to have somebody talk in generalities over a map, but you could do that 10 minutes out of an hour and have it covered.

I’ve also found myself watching MSNBC the most. I can’t put my finger on it, but they just seem to have the best coverage. Britt Hume on Fox is the best when he’s on, but he still only comes on for an hour in the evening, and then it’s all downhill from there. 

I happened to catch the morning Centcom briefing this morning on the radio. It’s amazing how little info they give out — and rightly so. Some reporter asked this morning for them to describe what the war plan was, or at least how many thrusts were being made into Iraq, and how many at Baghdad, since the Iraqi’s already know this. Well, maybe they do, and maybe they don’t. Why run the risk? The press seems to act like they’re not entirely sure that the military only shows the best LGB video. C’mon guys, of course Centcom only shows the best. 

Is it possible for the media organizations to send people who have done some homework? Some guy this morning was asking if they kept video of all the precision strikes, and when could he get his hands on it? They put this video dog and pony on every war, couldn’t you have thought to confer with the military before the war as to what kind of video you could get and when, and what had happened to it after other wars? They have public affairs officers for just that sort of thing. And while you’re at it, wouldn’t it have been nice to know what kinds of weapons we use, whether their guidance system does make a record, what the classification of that record is, and so forth, instead of asking what for what percentage of the strikes are such videos available? Do you honestly think the military keeps track of that number in the middle of a war? If you can’t look at the video, and tell immediately whether it’s from the designator of a LGB, from the seeker of an IIR weapon, or from a JDAM, you shouldn’t be at that conference, let alone asking questions. OK, that last sentance was a trick – there is no video record for JDAM since it’s an INS/GPS weapon.

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Basra Uprising

It appears that Iraqi troops in Basra are fighting with civilians in the town. The British have already used their artillery to take out Iraqi mortars used against civilians, and are talking about heading into the city to help. Good I say, and the sooner the better. I understand they don’t want to rush pell mell into the city, but want to take the time needed to gather intelligence and plan the mission. In 1991 we stood by when this happened; we shouldn’t make that same mistake again.

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