Posts Tagged Iraq

Wild Thinking Department

War with Iraq is inevitable at this point. Hussein isn’t going to disarm, and Bush isn’t going to back down. There are lots of people out there who think we’re going after the wrong country, and no I don’t mean North Korea. Most of the people who bring up North Korea do so to discredit an attack on Iraq, and aren’t seriously suggesting an attack on North Korea. No, I’m referring to Saudi Arabia. The Saudi’s supplied the money and people, and the Egyptians supplied the brains for 9/11 in their view.

There’s a big problem in attacking Saudi directly – they hold Mecca. If you’re worried about the Islamic street, infidels in Mecca is the biggest possible provocation of the street. So America directly attacking and occupying Saudi Arabia might cause far more unrest than Iraq. As I’ve said before, Iraq holds the central position in the Middle East – hold Iraq and you border Syria, Iran, Kuwait, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. There is no better place to lean on the bad boys (and support what passes for good boys in those parts) of the area than Iraq. And if America needs to change regime’s in Saudi Arabia, bases in Iraq, and Iraqi (or Jordanian) troops to occupy Mecca would come in very handy. Now I’m not saying that’s a plan, but I have to think it’s occurred to the Pentagon and the Saudi equivalent that a US backed post-Saddam Iraqi invasion of Saudi Arabia is sufficiently doable that you’d never actually have to do it.

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Existential Questions At The UN

I suppose we’re all pondering the same simple question: if the UN won’t vote that a resolution has been violated, has it been violated? The diplomats there seem to agree with Captain Collins of the USS San Pablo (from the movie The Sand Pebbles) that what matters isn’t the events of the day, but how we record those events. 

Iraq is in violation of numerous binding UN resolutions, most of which date to the end of the Gulf War. The latest, Resolution 1441, makes it clear that Iraq’s failure to disarm itself of weapons of mass destruction will result in “serious consequences”. It isn’t the job of the inspectors to disarm Iraq, or contain Iraq, or do anything but verify that Iraq has disarmed itself. Iraq clearly hasn’t done that. The UN response so far has been to ignore its own resolution as to what constitutes a material breach and make up the rules as it goes along.

The UN is in the position of a nice parent with a bratty child. As long as the child knows that no matter how much mom and/or dad blusters and threatens no real punishment will be forthcoming, the child will continue in his bratty ways. He knows “I’m not going to tell you again” in fact means all I’ll ever do is tell you, over and over, and hope you grow weary of the sound of my voice. In the UN case, not only is mom unwilling to follow through, she’s trying to keep dad from doing anything either. 

I happened to catch Saturday Night Live the other night. They had a skit where Bush announces that the US is no longer interested in Iraq anymore – they can do whatever they want, we don’t care. I’m not sure what the joke was supposed to be (a feeling I typically get while watching SNL which is why I do it so rarely now), but it got me to thinking, what would happen if Bush really would make that declaration. How long do you think inspectors would be in Iraq – hours or days?

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Belgium Joins the Axis of Weasels

The Washington Post reports that Belgium in solidarity with France and Germany will block a request of the US to provide military aid to Turkey in the event of war with Iraq. And Germany is working with France on a proposal that would include a deployment of UN troops to Iraq coupled with tripling the number of weapons inspectors – which immediately reminds me of the saying why should you expect different results if you keep doing the same thing. I guess one positive note out of all this is that France and Germany have apparently finally buried the hatchet after fighting war after war with each other and trading Alsace and Lorraine back and forth like a cheap baseball card. Maybe now that Iraq has rejected Blix’s latest requests, Germany will bother to tell Powell what they’ve got cooking, instead of letting him read about it in the paper. Do you sometimes wonder if we ever get beyond high school?

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A little History

The Midwest Conservative Journal is smoking on Iraq today. The only thing I have to add takes off from the remarks of John Howard (Australia’s Prime Minister for those of us who aren’t Al Gore) who said NATO’s attack on Serbian troops in Kosovo showed that UN approval was not a necessity for Allied troops to begin a military attack:

“Look at Kosovo. There was no UN resolution on Kosovo,” he said. “I don’t remember too many people at the time saying that’s outrageous. I don’t remember it.  I’m not saying Kosovo is a model for what might happen here. I’m not suggesting that. I’m using that as illustration that people who look for a black and white outcome from the UN could be mistaken.  In the end we could have a grey outcome from the UN and you then have to make a judgment on merits.” 

Let me go a little bit further. On Kosovo, not only was there no U.N. resolution, there was no congressional authorization. The short history was there was a cold civil war in Kosovo, with atrocities being committed by both Albanians and Serbians – in fact it was the Albanians in Kosovo who originated the use of rape as a means of war in the modern Balkans, and you were more likely to be victimized as a Serb than an Albanian in Kosovo. President Clinton demanded that Yugoslavia sign the Rambouillet Accord or else, with a deadline after which force would be used. This is typically known as issuing an ultimatum. We knew Yugoslavia wouldn’t, couldn’t accept this Accord — Kosovo was not only going to be autonomous, it was going to be under NATO control and occupation, and under appendix B Yugoslavia itself could be occupied by NATO. Didn’t anybody remember that WWI started with an ultimatum issued to Serbia – again one that couldn’t be accepted? So when the deadline passed, NATO ministers voted for war, and President Clinton ordered bombing to commence, without any congressional debate or vote. That’s right the United States of America went to war, not on a U.N. resolution, not on a Congressional Declaration of War, but on the vote of NATO. Where were the cries of give diplomacy a chance? 

And did we confine ourselves to military targets? No. Not only did we bomb civilian infrastructure – power plants, bridges, car factories, that could be argued were valid because of their use to the military, we bombed a Serbian TV studio because we didn’t like what they were saying on it. We targeted and killed civilians not because of their possible military value, but because we didn’t like their version of events. Where was the outcry? What would have happened if in the Gulf War we would have targeted Peter Arnett (like blowing up his hotel room at night) because we didn’t like how the Iraqi’s were using him for propaganda purposes? Don’t think too hard about that, instead, wonder why when the litany of why America is considered an arrogant cowboy country, we hear about Kyoto and not Kosovo.

So please, don’t tell me that Bush is a warmonger, or that an attack on Iraq without UN approval is illegal unless you said the same thing about Clinton and Kosovo.

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Iraq, The Middle East’s Center of Gravity

Congress voted to give President Bush the authority to use force against Iraq. One of the arguments against this was that Iraq isn’t the worst or only bad country around. And there is some truth to that. Let’s face it, most of the governments in the middle east outside Israel are dysfunctional. Four governments stand out – Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia as terrorist supporters and exporters. 

Look at a map and you’ll see why taking on Iraq first makes sense – it holds the central position of those countries. We’ve beaten Iraq in war recently, the terrain is ideal for our Armed Forces, and occupying Iraq puts US troops on the borders of all the bad apples of the Middle East. The toughest nut to crack militarily is Iran, but it’s also the government that is least secure from internal revolt, so it doesn’t make sense to attack them militarily first. An attack on Syria would likely cause them attack Israel to try to bring all the Arabs in on their side and its worth noting they have the best terrorist connections. Saudi Arabia is still nominally our ally, thus hardest to move against politically. 

This isn’t an argument for attacking Iraq in and of itself. This is an argument for attacking Iraq IF you plan on taking military action to deal with Arab terrorism.

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The Law Professors Statement on Iraq

I sometimes think I’m the only person who has a memory. I don’t just mean how some people borrow money from you and then act like it never happened. And I don’t mean how some people tell you on the eve of every war how it’s going to be a quagmire, and they act like they haven’t been wrong for the last, oh, five or six wars. Nope, what really bugs me is when people who consider themselves really smart tell me something that if I have any memory at all I’ll know makes them hypocrites. Consider if you will, the law professors statement on Iraq. In it, they make the rather grandiose statement that “A US War Against Iraq Will Violate US and International Law and Set a Dangerous Precedent For Violence That Will Endanger the American People.” Just how will this violate international law? Well, again I quote, “But the President ignores the fact that a US war, unleashed without the approval of the UN Security Council, against a country that has not attacked the United States, would itself be an unlawful act, in defiance of America’s treaty obligations, and a violation of US and international law.” Okay, I’m no lawyer, but last time I checked, we attacked Yugoslavia (Serbia) without UN approval, without congressional approval — Clinton didn’t bother putting it to a vote, he just said NATO voted to attack, so bombs away — and without Yugoslavia threatening the United States in any shape, way or form. Where were these concerned law professors then? Where were they for Panama, Grenada, and Haiti? I think they only protest when it’s a Republican president, but are silent when Democrats attack other countries without UN mandate, congressional mandate, or a threat to the security of the United States As far as setting a dangerous precedent — too late. 

You in the back are raising your hand in objection (or confusion) to my inclusion of Haiti – I’m talking about Clinton’s invasion, not anybody else’s. Maybe you forgot, but the 82nd airborne had actually taken off on their way to invade when the ruling junta took the money and ran — reportedly because their spies told them it was coming. So Clinton was trying to invade but his credible threat of force coupled with a large pile of cash rendered the invasion moot. There’s a perfect example of the willingness to use force achieving something; it’s too bad that as it turned out new boss same as the old boss.

Another point cries out for rebuttal: “Lawless international violence only breeds more killing of innocent people. The massive civilian deaths, the scarred and maimed children, the ruined and starving peoples, whose suffering is inseparable from warfare, can only spawn new generations of embittered peoples, new hate-filled leaders, new enraged individuals, determined to answer violence with violence.” This view of war is so last century, but inaccurate even then. Stalemates lead to further violence as the two sides try again to win; big victories end the violence as the losers accommodate themselves to the once unaccommodatable. For instance, the Germans felt that WWI ended in a draw militarily, so they tried again in WWII. If you want to talk massive civilian deaths, ruined and starving people, that’s the Germans immediately following WWII. If you believed the professors, they should have gone a couple more rounds with the Democracies; instead, they haven’t gone to war since, and they want to sit the Iraq war out, too. 

Would these professors have protested our response to Pearl Harbor? According to them, a military response would have only provoked the Japanese even more. They’re like the guy in the Life of Brian who tells the blasphemer to stop blaspheming as he is about to get stoned because he’s only going to make it worse for himself. “How can I make it any worse, you’re going to kill me!” the blasphemer replies. 

There are valid reasons not to go to war against Iraq. But this is just grasping at straws; worse for the professors, what if the UN and Congress do authorize force against Iraq?

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