Archive for category Technology

Data Mining Against Fraud

Researchers at Carnegie Mellon have devised algorithms relying on data miniing to catch people who commit fraud on internet auction sites:

Online auction sites are immensely popular. The largest, eBay, reported third quarter revenues of $1.449 billion, up 31 percent from the previous year, and registered 212 million users, up 26 percent. But the popularity of online auction sites also makes them a target for crooks. Internet auction fraud, such as failure to deliver goods after a sale, accounted for almost two-thirds of the 97,000 complaints referred to law enforcement agencies last year by the federal Internet Crime Complaint Center.Perpetrators of these frauds have distinctive online behaviors that cause them to be readily purged from an online auction site, said Computer Science Professor Christos Faloutsos. The software developed by his research team – Network Detection via Propagation of Beliefs, or NetProbe – could prevent future frauds by identifying their accomplices, who can lurk on a site indefinitely and enable new generations of fraudsters.

In a test analysis of about one million transactions between almost 66,000 eBay users, NetProbe correctly detected 10 previously identified perpetrators, as well as more than a dozen probable fraudsters and several dozen apparent accomplices.

I know data mining is a bad word for some people, but as they are careful to point out this is all public info. It would be interesting to find out if auction sites use this in house if non-public info helps. Now if this will stand up in court, we can get somewhere. I wonder if you could use public info on prior auctions & other bidders to help you craft a bidding strategy.

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Cheap Arsenic Removal

Here’s the good news: a cheap and effective way to remove arsenic from drinking water.

The discovery of unexpected magnetic interactions between ultrasmall specks of rust is leading scientists at Rice University’s Center for Biological and Environmental Nanotechnology (CBEN) to develop a revolutionary, low-cost technology for cleaning arsenic from drinking water. The technology holds promise for millions of people in India, Bangladesh and other developing countries where thousands of cases of arsenic poisoning each year are linked to poisoned wells.

Here’s the snark: First he lost the election (sort of), then he fired Rumsfeld, now his plans to poison Americans has been thwarted. What more is going to go wrong for Bush?

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Just Add Air

Not content with their first Ig Nobel prize, researchers at CSIRO have determined that adding air to your shower can cut water use by a third. Last time I checked, my shower is filled with air before I even turn the water on, so I add water to my air to take a shower.

The scientists have developed a simple “air shower” device which, when fitted into existing showerheads, fills the water droplets with a tiny bubble of air. The result is the shower feels just as wet and just as strong as before, but now uses much less water. … Small-scale experiments using the aeration device found that people detected no difference in water pressure, sensation, or overall perception of showering. … He expects the nozzle would cost less than $20 and could be installed by householders.

All kidding aside, I hope this device works better than the “low flow” showerheads that have done so much to ruin on of the last enjoyments of life – a long hot shower. No word on whether or not they investigated the actually cleaning done by the shower.

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Mad Dogs And Englishmen

Just to prove I don’t have sex on the brain, here’s another story about pointless science or technology and this time it has nothing to do with sex (unless you believe in the Watson Conjecture). It’s all about the UV index, and how we so called Homo Sapiens Sapiens, which literally means ‘man wise wise’ are too stupid to figure out how bad we’re going to get sunburned without some weather person telling us how bad the UV is. I mean, it’s not like I can open my eyes, gaze into the heavens, and arrive at my own estimate as to how much UV is making it through the clouds or clear skies as the case may be.

But now the European Space Agency, ESA, has gone high tech with it. Yep, they have developed “safe sunning” technology using satellites to determine and inform you of the UV index:

Thanks to an innovative service called HappySun, the UV Index can be delivered directly to mobile phones via SMS or can be accessed on the Internet. HappySun calculates the UV Index throughout the day by using ESA satellite data on radiation, ozone and cloud coverage. The service has just completed its two-year-long test phase and has received positive feedback from users.
“HappySun is a tool for the primary prevention of skin cancer,” Franco Marsili, Director of the Dermatology Clinic at the Versilia Hospital in Italy, said. “The aim is to educate people about the intelligent ‘use’ of the sun.”

Gee, I don’t know how I’ve avoided skin cancer so far without this revolutionary space age technology to tell me how long I can stay in the sun without getting a sunburn. I’ve been saying to myself for years I just can’t figure out how long I can stay in the sun without a reliable UV index.

We really should change our offical name to Homo Stupidus Stupidus.

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Hewlett Packard, We Hardly Know You Anymore

I have to admit I have a soft spot in my heart for Hewlett Packard. Perhaps it’s because when I was a physics undergrad I used the original signal generators sold to Stanford University in my first lab (and yes, even then they belonged in a museum). When I was graduating, they were known as a quality employer with a special culture. So I have always associated the company with the best engineering values. It seems that all things change, and sadly H-P has changed too. The Carly Fiorina fiasco has now been followed by Patricia Dunn debacle. No, I don’t think this has anything to do with the ability of a woman to run a great engineering company. I think it happens to do more with who runs large companies these days. Not just cream floats to the top.

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The Driver Makes The Car

Have airbags and anti-lock brakes made us safer?  The answer is no, according to a study by Dr. Mannering of Purdue University. And the reason is that people adjust their driving behavior to the safer cars:

The researchers used a series of mathematical equations in “probit models” to calculate accident probabilities based on the motor vehicle data and actual driving records. Using the data, the model enabled researchers to calculate the probabilities of whether drivers in different age and demographic categories would be involved in an accident. The models showed that the safety systems did not affect the probability of having an accident or injury.The study represents the first attempt to test the offset hypothesis using “disaggregate data,” or following the same households over time instead of using more general “aggregate” data from the population at large.

“By using disaggregate data, we have added to the credibility that our findings actually reflect offsetting behavior,” Mannering said. “And the 2005 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration fatality data released last month indicate that fatalities per mile driven in the United States have actually increased, which adds some aggregate validation of our findings.”

I’m one of those codgers who grumble about how when I was kid we didn’t even have seat belts, and all the other safety features we take for granted, and somehow survived childhood. Now I’m on firm scientific footing when I do so.

If we make such an adjustment without even thinking while driving a car, think of all the other stuff we simply adjust to so that we are keeping something like risk constant, or even increasing risk while thinking we are lowering it.

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World’s Smallest Gas Turbine Engine

MIT professors are trying to put a gas turbine engine on a chip. No, not because they are disciples of Schumacher, but because they are trying to build a better mousetrap, err, battery. The DOD is interested because they want to be able to provide soldiers plenty of power in the wilderness, or at least in difficult to supply situations.

Their microengine is made of six silicon wafers, piled up like pancakes and bonded together. Each wafer is a single crystal with its atoms perfectly aligned, so it is extremely strong. To achieve the necessary components, the wafers are individually prepared using an advanced etching process to eat away selected material. When the wafers are piled up, the surfaces and the spaces in between produce the needed features and functions….

The MIT team has now used this process to make all the components needed for their engine, and each part works. Inside a tiny combustion chamber, fuel and air quickly mix and burn at the melting point of steel. Turbine blades, made of low-defect, high-strength microfabricated materials, spin at 20,000 revolutions per second — 100 times faster than those in jet engines. A mini-generator produces 10 watts of power. A little compressor raises the pressure of air in preparation for combustion. And cooling (always a challenge in hot microdevices) appears manageable by sending the compression air around the outside of the combustor.

This is one reason I like engineers – when they have fun, we all benefit.

Software That Can Sort Facts From Opinions

File this in the category of too good to be true: “A new research program by a Cornell computer scientist, in collaboration with colleagues at the University of Pittsburgh and University of Utah, aims to teach computers to scan through text and sort opinion from fact.”

That will revolutionize the pundit business. I’m thinking lots of people will be surprised to discover just how much they read is opinion, not fact. And not just on op ed pages, either. But I’m not hopeful that the tack the researchers are taking will be able to measure anything beside how well a writer disguises his opinion as fact:

The new research will use machine-learning algorithms to give computers examples of text expressing both fact and opinion and teach them to tell the difference. A simplified example might be to look for phrases like “according to” or “it is believed.” Ironically, Cardie said, one of the phrases most likely to indicate opinion is “It is a fact that …”The work also will seek to determine the sources of information cited by a writer. “We’re making sure that any information is tagged with a confidence. If it’s low confidence, it’s not useful information,” Cardie added.

So it’s not like they are actually going to check the writing against facts; they are just going to look at how the information is presented, which means that ironically if you present opinion as fact the programs will take your word for it and flag it as fact. If you are careful and present your opinions as such, then the program will pick up on that and flag it as opinion.

In other words, the researchers are writing a program that uses the writer’s opinion to sort opinion from fact in the writers work. Won’t that be a great help. No word on a computerized sarcasm detector.

More, More, More

Here’s a bit of good news: More than 565 people were arrested in Europe and the US in a sweep targeting marketing fraud using the internet. So far, 61 convictions. Keep it up, we need to cut down on all the fraud. I’m tired of my inbox bulging with criminal intent all the time.

What Does Information Taste Like?

The way to a man’s heart is through his stomach, so it should come as no surprise that the way to anyone’s brain is through the tongue. The military is interested in a device known as a Brain Port: a strip of 144 electrodes that can send information through nerves in the tongue to the brain. One user described the sensation to Pop Rocks.

But its not all about the military:

In testing, blind people found doorways, noticed people walking in front of them and caught balls. A version of the device, expected to be commercially marketed soon, has restored balance to those whose vestibular systems in the inner ear were destroyed by antibiotics.

I’m thinking its an even better man/machine interface than the desktop metaphor, keyboard and mouse.

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