Archive for category National Politics

Britt Hume on Social Security

I managed to catch some of Brit Hume’s Special Report tonight. I happen to think he’s far and away the best anchor on TV and a top notch analyst, so I usually try to see his show. But tonight when introducing a story on the end of fox hunting in England, he ascribed the line “green and pleasant land” in reference to England to Shakespeare. Now I can’t definitively say that the bard never wrote, let alone uttered those words, but I know William Blake used them in his poem Jerusalem that has gone on to be the favorite hymn of England. Not because I’m an expert on romantic poets (or poets of any persuasion), but because I like the Emerson Lake and Palmer version and Monty Python used the hymn in the dog kennels skit.

I’ve been following the links over at Instapundit in regards to accusations that Hume made another, more serious mistake in reference to FDR’s plans for social security.  Media MattersAl Franken and now Kevin Drum accuse Hume of selective quoting, the worst Dowdification to change a meaning since Maureen perfected its use by routinely changing people’s meanings to the exact opposite from what they really said.

Well, Cassandra at Villainous Company actually bothered to check the transcript and discovered that it wasn’t Hume doing the selective quoting, it was the usual suspects: Media Matters, Al Franken, Kevin Drum, Daily Kos et al. Cassandra really hammers Franken but good and is well worth the read.

From Media Matters:

Earlier that evening, on FOX News’ Special Report with Brit Hume, Hume provided the alleged historical basis for Bennett’s claim:

HUME: In a written statement to Congress in 1935, Roosevelt said that any Social Security plans should include, quote, “Voluntary contributory annuities, by which individual initiative can increase the annual amounts received in old age,” adding that government funding, quote, “ought to ultimately be supplanted by self-supporting annuity plans.”

But Roosevelt was not advocating that the present system of guaranteed Social Security benefits “ought to ultimately be supplanted by self-supporting annuity plans.” Rather, he was proposing that both mandatory contributions and voluntary annuities would eventually eliminate the need for a different fund which was established to provide pension benefits to Americans who were already too old in 1935 to contribute payroll taxes to the Social Security system.

Roosevelt outlined the three major tenets he envisioned for Social Security in the January 17, 1935, speech that Hume quoted. As the Social Security Administration (SSA) has noted, these tenets are: 1) “non-contributory old-age pensions for those who are now too old to build up their own insurance”; 2) “compulsory contributory annuities which in time will establish a self-supporting system for those now young and for future generations”; and 3) “voluntary contributory annuities by which individual initiative can increase the annual amounts received in old age.”

It seems to me that their real beef is with Bill Bennet (and that is where the outrage started with Media Matters) taking Hume’s abbreviated quote and running with it, rather than Hume, because as Cassandra noted, what Hume said was (in full):

Senate Democrats gathered at the Franklin Roosevelt Memorial today to invoke the image of FDR in calling on President Bush to remove private accounts from his Social Security proposal. But it turns out that FDR himself planned to include private investment accounts in the Social Security program when he proposed it.

In a written statement to Congress in 1935, Roosevelt said that any Social Security plans should include, “Voluntary contributory annuities, by which individual initiative can increase the annual amounts received in old age,” adding that government funding, “ought to ultimately be supplanted by self-supporting annuity plans.”

Last night, Senate minority leader Harry Reid likened the president’s proposal to allow Americans to divert a portion of payroll taxes into personal security investment accounts to “gambling.” But in 1999, the Nevada Democrat proposed something very similar on our own “FOX News Sunday” saying, “Most of us have no problem with taking a small amount of the Social Security proceeds and putting it into the private sector.”

Now did Hume not provide the whole quote? No, he didn’t. But then he didn’t pretend to, did he. He provided the part that bore directly on the claim that FDR wanted a voluntary contributory part. And if you’ve ever paid much attention to the news, you know that such shortening of quotes is pretty standard. The trick is to shorten the quote without changing the meaning. And Hume didn’t change the meaning.

What struck me though was the actual language FDR used (let’s roll the tape):

At this time, I recommend the following types of legislation looking to economic security:

1. Unemployment compensation.

2. Old-age benefits, including compulsory and voluntary annuities.

3. Federal aid to dependent children through grants to States for the support of existing mothers’ pension systems and for services for the protection and care of homeless, neglected, dependent, and crippled children.

In the important field of security for our old people, it seems necessary to adopt three principles: First, noncontributory old-age pensions for those who are now too old to build up their own insurance. It is, of course, clear that for perhaps 30 years to come funds will have to be provided by the States and the Federal Government to meet these pensions. Second, compulsory contributory annuities which in time will establish a self-supporting system for those now young and for future generations. Third, voluntary contributory annuities by which individual initiative can increase the annual amounts received in old age. It is proposed that the Federal Government assume one-half of the cost of the old-age pension plan, which ought ultimately to be supplanted by self-supporting annuity plans.

My ellipses note where I removed a portion of the speech referring to health insurance and unemployment compensation (news flash: FDR against government health insurance! Just kidding, but he didn’t advocate it).

In light of FDR’s clear call not just once, but twice for voluntary and compulsory annuities for old age benefits, it’s clear that Hume was accurate in his assessment of FDR’s desire for a voluntary part to old age benefits. 

But what’s amazing is the call for a self supporting system of annuities that would be started by 30 years of government (state and federal) funding. That isn’t how Social Security is run – it’s run as a pay as you go system and always has been. And if you honestly think that a pay as you go system is self supporting (especially with demographics rapidly becoming 2 workers for every 1 retiree), you really have no business opining on economics. I mean, if you think it is, then there wouldn’t be a need for 30 year period of money coming from the government to fund them initially — it would just be a compulsory government funded part and a voluntary annuity part for ever and ever.

Now contra Bill Bennet, that doesn’t necessarily mean privatization, but it sure isn’t the system we do have.

Now this is just one speech and FDR was a politician and thus accustomed to compromise and the art of speaking so the audience hears what it wants to hear, but based on this not only did FDR want a voluntary component to Social Security, he wanted pay as you go only for the first 30 years or so until the money that people had paid in could come back to them in benefits. Wow. I bet that’s someting you won’t hear Media Matters, Al Franken, Kevin Drum or Kos.

Tags:

It’s The Other Side’s Fault

I used to post frequently on the St. Louis Post-Dispatch forums in their various incarnations (my user name was, oddly enough, kevin murphy) but got tired of it for various reasons – one of which was the polarization of the debate. Where once there was a group of people discussing various issues (endlessly without conclusion), there became two sides locked in a life and death struggle to show that the other side was evil root and branch. Mark at Kaedrin has noticed the same thing and has decided to try a new approach suggested by Benjamin Franklin. I’m hoping he’ll let us know how it turns out.

Tags:

But It Sure Feels Nice

If brevity is the soul of wit, compare these two opinion pieces on Senator Boxer’s content-free challenge to President Bush’s re-election:

A Media professional

Some guy in his PJs

Which one does the better job of capturing the essence of the challenge?

Tags:

Oh Yeah, The Election

If there’s a wall of separation between church and state, why did I vote in a church? 

As I’m going into vote, I see a sign about no cell phones. So I figure what are the odds I’ll get a call. You guessed it, my phone rings just as I’m signing my name. You’d think from the reaction I just offered 50 bucks for a vote for the Socialist Workers party. I mean really, what’s the big deal. The Fruit of the Murphy Loin’s pediatrician has a sign please don’t talk on the cell phone during the examination — that I understand, although since it’s a nice practice in the heart of West St. Louis county it makes me wonder what’s wrong with people in a way that no election does — but what is the burning problem with getting a phone call at a polling place. Somebody is going to tell me how to vote? I just don’t get it. But I’m not about to get into an argument with a bunch of nice old people who have an ounce of authority once a year, so I turn the phone off without answering. Turns out it was my wife calling to ask how bad the lines were. I should have ignored the old people.

Once again I was able to vote using a butterfly ballot and a punch card without any problem, just like I have for the last 20 years I’ve been voting in Missouri.

What amazes me about polling is how people try to use them like a scalpel when really they are a club. If a candidates poll numbers change by 1% between two polls that have a quoted margin of error of 3.5%, you know exactly zilch. This statistical noise is invariable quoted as a sure sign that a candidate’s message is working if an increase or support is ebbing away if a decrease. If a candidate is up by 5 percentage points in a poll with that same margin of error, then we know that either candidate could be winning. You ever see a poll reported that way? Only if it’s a Republican that is up and it is the New York Times doing the reporting. 

And polls are never as accurate as the quoted margin of error. The margin that’s quoted is the mathematical error of a random sample compared to a full population based on the size of the random sample. Mathematics has a wonderful neatness to it that real life rarely obtains. The sample is never random and people lie. There have been very few presidential elections that weren’t inside the polls’ true margin of error, and yet like lie detectors, which aren’t, we follow polls with great fanfare and fascination. I have to admit though, it takes rare talent to screw up exit polls as badly as they did this election.

Why do people sit glued to the TV on election night and watch the returns like it’s the Superbowl? Yes, the election is more important than the Superbowl (as long as the Rams aren’t playing), but it’s not like you miss anything by just turning the TV on the next morning and finding out the results. It’s not like you get to watch the ballots being counted or anything; what you get is the same old people saying the same old things (with the exception of Brit Hume, Michael Barone and the occasional guest who actually has something to say despite the best efforts of the media to keep those people off the air). I understand all you people who tuned into CBS to see if Dan Rather would talk his own style of gibberish, or better yet, have a complete emotional breakdown on air. Understand, but not approve.

I, like my fellow Americans, was so looking forward to November 3 so that I could watch the idiot box without announcers telling me how awful some politician was over menacing music (or worse, how life would just be perfect if only I voted for some politician over saccharine music). Now if we could just vaporize the yard signs when the polls close, life would be complete. Except for the breast beating of the losers. I know the word was out for Bush supporters not to gloat (you’ll notice this blog was a gloat free zone despite the fact that I voted for more winners than losers this election, a pretty rare event), but I wish the word had gone out to Kerry supporters to keep the wailing and gnashing of teeth private. Instead, I was treated to more insults by people who don’t know me and have gone out of their way to not understand me than I’ve gotten since junior high. Can’t we just insult the politicians before and after the elections, and leave me and my fellow Americans out of it?

Election Fallout

To all those priests, pastors, and bishops who urged their flock to vote for George Bush:

I hope you enjoyed your foray into politics, the Kingdom of this World.

From you I heard several non-Biblical claims during the course of the 2004 campaign:

1. That opposition to abortion is the greatest commandment, that it should take precedence over all other considerations when selecting a candidate to vote for.

Why not elect Jack Ryan as U.S. Senator from Illinois? He’s against abortion. He just has this little problem of taking his wife to strip clubs.

Apparently the directive to oppose abortion takes precedence over the Pope’s strong opposition to invading Iraq.

2. That it’s okay to withhold Holy Communion from politicians who don’t oppose abortion in public policy, and from members of your congregations who don’t vote for anti-abortion candidates. (I wonder, are some parishioners required to tell who they voted for?)

3. That the ongoing presidency of George Bush will somehow overturn Roe vs. Wade; despite the fact that he has no plan to ban abortion, as he stated in the Tempe, Arizona debate: “no, I will not have a litmus test. I will pick judges who will interpret the Constitution, but I’ll have no litmus test.”

Well, you got what you wanted: George Bush is president for four more years. If you are correct then we should expect to see Roe vs. Wade overturned by Election Day 2008, or the abortion rate drop significantly, or at least substantial progress made in those directions. Put up now or shut up the next time around.

The calling to Christian ministry includes accountability by the leaders. I will be watching.

I’m aware that overturning abortion depends on more than just the president. Another principle of accountability is this: You get credit or blame for whatever happens on your watch. President Harry Truman had a placard on his desk saying, “The buck stops here.”

We need one of those tire-ripping devices that they put on the entrance to rental car lots, to keep people from backing up.

Presidential Election Challenge – I’m Out !

Here’s the hour-by-hour narrative of how I fared:

Tuesday, Election Day, noon. I think I’m pretty safe today. There won’t be a projected winner until sometime tonight, so how can I find out who won the presidential election if nobody knows? Still, I take precautions. No checking out those news sites on the web. This cuts out CNN.com, MSN.com, the BBC, and the New Zealand Herald.

Tuesday, 1:30pm. I discover that if I’m very careful, I can surf the web. I can look at Mt. St. Helens, Longs Peak, and some weather stations. But all it will take is some “news ticker” across the bottom of the page and I’ll be outta the game!

Tuesday, 3pm. I need to look up where is Bari, Italy. Do I dare use Google? Google has a big check box in honor of Election Day today, but no news ticker. Whew! Bari is on the Adriatic coast near Brindisi. I’d like to go there.

Tuesday, 4pm. I overhear some talk from Daran in the office next to me. “All the states are still gray.” No winner projected anywhere. That’s good for me.

Tuesday, 8pm. I overhear Christine talking on the phone that “it could be weeks!” That long to figure out who won, huh? It sounds like things are close.

Wednesday, 6am. I really gotta watch it today. I realize that there will come a time when I know that we have a winner, and another time when I know who that winner is. Or will I find out in one fell swoop? Who knows?

Wednesday, 7am. Off to work on my bicycle. Ack! There’s the morning paper at the end of the driveway! That probably contains THE ANSWER. Carefully I walk backwards to the paper, and locate it with my feet. I pick it up behind my back, and carry it there to the front door. I drop it inside, keeping my eyes averted. That was close. Too close.

Wednesday, 7:05am. As I ride out the driveway I see two women taking their morning walk up the street. They’re talking! Every conversation holds danger for me! Danger!!! I tighten my ear flaps and quickly ride out of earshot.

Wednesday, 7:30am. I get to work early, and there is nobody around. That’s good. But Graham kept me up last night, and I need a cup of coffee. Oh, no! What do you think people talk about around the coffee pot on the morning after an election?!! But I need that coffee! I decide to risk it.

Wednesday, 7:35am. The coffee is not made yet. Drat! After several agonizing minutes watching the stupid coffee machine take forever to produce one measly cup of coffee, I scurry back to my office with the hot cup of coffee in hand. Safe!

Wednesday, 7:40am. Suspecting that the news might leak in through Daran’s office next door, I close my own office door. Just as a precaution.

Wednesday, 7:47am. My brother Michael in Utah sends me an e-mail. The subject is: “Results (not yet)”. Do I dare open it? Yes, I told him that I was playing this game, and I think he’s playing it too. He merely informs me that he doesn’t know the results yet, and that he carefully did not unfold the newspaper this morning. Whew!

Wednesday, 7:56am. Another e-mail from my brother. He says “Oh well, the conversations filtered over the wall. Presidential results known at 7:56 AM.” I tell him that I’m holed up in my office with the door closed, desperately trying to keep the news from leaking in. I feel like the proverbial Dutch boy with his little finger in the dike.

Wednesday, 8:13am. Yet another e-mail from Michael: “Oops! I guess that the results in the presidential election are not known yet.” Ha!

Wednesday, 8:27am. I’d really like to see how the Alan Keyes – Barack Obama Senate race in Illinois turned out, but I don’t dare look.

Wednesday, 10:24am. Michael (my ‘safe’ news source) reports: “At 10:09 AM MST the news filtered over the wall that one of the candidates had conceded.” Hmmm. Generally that means he lost the election. I wonder who it was, Bush or Kerry? What’s going on out there?

Wednesday, 11am. I’m having lunch with a friend in the company cafeteria. The cafeteria! That was a dumb idea. Andy has been sworn to secrecy, but the whole company has not. Looking out the window, I don’t see anyone wildly celebrating. Or jumping off the roof, either.

Wednesday, 1:30pm. I can’t believe it! I made it through lunch! Andy and I found a nice quiet corner away from everybody else. He did tell me there was a concession this morning, and there will be an acceptance speech shortly. Andy said he could hardly believe that Ralph Nader won! Riiiiight . . .

Wednesday, 2:03pm. At the beginning of my 2:00 meeting someone says, “I was out electioneering yesterday. But we won’t talk about that any more.” Knowing this person, I’m pretty sure the remark means that Bush won.

Thursday, 8:24am. A new day. And I still don’t know who won the presidential election! I’m pretty sure it must be George Bush, though, based on people’s moods. Known Bush supporters are pretty cheerful, and known Kerry supporters are kind of subdued. I also think there would be more talk of “transition” and some excited or cynical speculation if we were going to change presidents. It’s too normal out there. So Bush must be the winner.

I’m not going to sequester myself like I did yesterday. I’m leaving my office door open. But I will continue to avoid certain web sites. I will not peek. I will be the Master of My News Domain!

Thursday, 1:45pm. At the end of my Dynamic Meteorology class the professor said something about how he thought of writing in “Vorticity” on the ballot for president (I didn’t hear the beginning of the conversation). The guy next to me groaned, “I’ll take anybody but George.”

That is not something you say if John Kerry won! When combined with the other clues I’ve picked up, I think I can safely conclude that George Bush won the 2004 presidential election. This takes me officially out of the 2004 Presidential Challenge at 1:45pm.

If one can make it safely through the initial news blast the game gets easier. I think I’ll keep on ignoring the news just for the heck of it. I’ll let you all know when and how I get full-fledged confirmation.

If you want to relate your own experience in playing the 2004 Presidential Election Challenge, please enter them as Comments for this entry. Thanks for playing!

Tags:

2004 Presidential Election Challenge

Here’s the challenge: Avoid learning who won the presidential election for as long as possible.

In 2000 I managed to make it for a whole month! But that was an exceptional year.

I think the networks will avoid projecting the winner until sometime late on Election Night, so Tuesday should be pretty easy. Wednesday will be more difficult. I have to avoid the newspaper, the radio, the Internet, and of course TV. But I have some meetings at work during the day, and probably somebody will spill the beans then. I’ll request my wife’s forbearance in telling me who won, although Christine is keenly interested in the outcome. My guess is that I’ll make it until Wednesday about noon.

Who else wants to participate? Come on! Everyone who reads this blog is a news junkie, so it will require all your restraint. But you don’t really have to know right away! You can do your job and go about your daily life for a few days without knowing who is going to be our next (or continuing) president. How far do you think you can make it? Until Thursday? If you decide to go on a backpacking trip in November just to avoid finding out, you deserve to win the challenge.

You’re out of the game when you know that you know who won. I will post a follow-up entry when I find out. I will note the exact local time, and exactly how I accidentally found out. If you want to play, you can post similar information in the Comments section of that future entry. If you have to ask “What’s the point of this?”, you probably aren’t the right person to play.

I’m going out now. You will not hear from me until we meet again on the other side of that Great Divide . . .

Tags:

I’d Rather Eat Broken Glass

I would rather eat pieces of broken glass than watch the presidential debates. The spectacle of two grown men bickering and posturing and trying to get in some catchy zinger makes me wish for a New Zealand citizenship. There are moments of substance in the debates, but these are overshadowed by the focus on image and style and who could deliver the most clever put-down. The partisan debate audience cares very little about the issues – they are there to cheer on their candidate. They aren’t there to learn anything. The media will anoint a “winner” and a “loser” based on some objective criteria like who sweat the most or who looked at his watch. I feel very embarrassed watching the debates.

Why should I watch the presidential debates? If I want to know where the two men stand on the issues I can look up their positions on their web sites, or look at the comparisons that routinely appear in the media. I’m familiar with their records (Bush more so than Kerry). I can use statistics to analyze what happened to the country or state over their term in office. If I want to evaluate their characters I can observe how they’ve conducted their presidential campaigns, what they’ve said and what has been said by their surrogates.

And yet – eating broken glass does not help me to fulfill my civic duty to evaluate the candidates and vote for whoever I think will do a better job of leading this country over the next four years. So I will watch at least one of the debates.

During some past presidential cycle a news writer observed that a presidential debate is one of the few venues that the candidate does not control. Speeches, news conferences, public gatherings – all these are mostly controlled by the candidates. Not so with a debate. We get to see how he or she will react in unknown circumstances. Are these circumstances relevant to presidential performance? Yes, because verbal debate is part of the political process, part of governing in this country. The debates are a data point we don’t already have.

I will watch at least one debate. But I won’t enjoy it!

Maybe I’ll keep a bowl of broken glass on the coffee table nearby just in case.

Tags:

Thank You Maam, May I Have Another

I’m not one to criticize the family of politicians (minor children are strictly off limits in my book), but Teresa Heinz Kerry is exceptional. She throws around insults like breath mints. She’s like Leona Helmsly, only with less charm.

Tags:

Bush For President

The official FunMurphys endorsement for President goes to George Bush. While I don’t think there would be much difference in the outcome domestically between Bush and Kerry due to the wonderful apparatus of divided government, I think there would be a huge difference between Bush and Kerry in how the War on Terror is fought.

The war we are fighting in not against a single man, or a single organization even. Iraq is currently the central front on the War on Terror because it is the struggle for the future of a nation in the heartland of Islamofascism. Afghanistan is on the edge – it’s importance derived from being a nation fun by Islamofascists. Now that the Taliban is on the fringe, so too is Afghanistan. Instead, Iraq is front and center because it holds the ability to demonstrate that Islamofascism isn’t the future, but the past. And it borders the hotspots – Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia – of the Middle East.

Bush will stay the course in Iraq, Kerry would find a way to cut and run. The fate of Iraq isn’t in our hands; it’s in the hands of the Iraqis. But the best chance for moderate democrats to come out on top there (or at least come out somewhere other than another mass grave) is if the US stays committed and the Iraqi people feel that commitment. 

We would return to the years of watching and waiting – as we did when we knew that Al Qaida was running terrorist training camps in Afghanistan but did nothing. We were content to hold high level meetings in Washington to talk about fighting terrorism, but we only acted in limited response to attacks against us. 

We would return to the years of only doing the easy. As near as I can tell, Kosovo was good because it was easy, but Iraq is bad because it is hard. But you can’t just do the easy stuff and get done what needs to be done. 

We would return to pretending that the UN is something other than a failed institution, a snake pit of self interest, and non-corrupt.

We would return to a foreign policy of acting like the parent who nags their child but never does anything about their behavior. We would be deeply disappointed with Syria, Iran, North Korea, and the other evil dictatorships that are still too plentiful, but we wouldn’t actually do anything other than sign another check to try and appease them.

I don’t want to go back to those days, and that has been John Kerry’s foreign policy for as long as he’s had one. To marry a man and expect him to change is the folly of women; to elect a president and expect him to change would be an equal folly for the electorate.

The War on Terror is going to end with a lot of dead terrorists; the only question is how many they take with them. They are equal opportunity killers, as you can see by how many Iraqis they kill for trying to make Iraq a country for Iraqis. Our war is with Islamofascists, and if it goes well then they will be killed mainly by other Moslems; if it doesn’t go well, they will be killed mainly by us, and sadly we will kill other Moslems with them.