While My Better Half was barreling across multiple states on her epic road trip, I put together a spreadsheet of Missouri COVID death statistics from the state of Missouri’s COVID dashboard which provided the number of cases and deaths by age group which allowed me to calculate the case fatality rate; the ratio of age related to average CFR column (not a percentage!) which is the age related CFR divided by the average CFR in the Total row – so the value of 9.91 for 80+ indicates that people in that age category have 9.91 times the risk of dying on a case basis than the average while at 55-59 you have basically half the risk; and the percentage of deaths by age group plus the cumulative percentage. I have to believe Missouri is representative of the country as a whole since we are kind of in the middle both in location and rural/urban split. Sometimes we just don’t appreciate how age drives outcome for COVID – not shown but based on other data I’ve seen the rate at which people are admitted to the ICU is driven by age, but not as strongly as deaths, and admitted to the hospital is driven by age, but even less strongly than ICU admission.
This is why I keep saying the vaccinations should only focus on older people and those with comorbidities, and any focus on an essential job will wind up killing people and keeping hospitals overburdened. More than 85 percent of deaths occur in people past the age of retirement, so the data and experience make it crystal clear our essential societal functions can thrive in the face of COVID, unlike for example extreme cold or heat or wildfires which have brought the regions of the country that have experienced them recently to their knees. It’s as deadly as putting COVID positive people back in nursing homes to vaccinate anyone younger with no comorbidity before anyone older.
Also, there have only been 3 deaths of people under the age of 18, which is less than flu kills year in and year out of this age group. People in their 20s run a tiny risk, so schools really should be open in person full time with an option for those few that do have comorbidities.
We have to abandon our preconceived notions about disease and just follow the data for the one we are actually confronted with – and COVID is not an equal opportunity killer. When the data tells us the median age of death is 79, we need to listen.
